Will Eknath Shinde’s move lead to Maratha Vs OBC war in state?

“I had taken an oath which I fulfilled today,” said chief minister Eknath Shinde, standing next to Manoj Jarange-Patil, in Vashi on Saturday, as a teeming crowd of Marathas facing them cheered.

With that, the agitation seeking inclusion of Marathas in the Other Backward Classes (OBC) category as Kunbis, a sub-caste of the community which gets reservation under the OBC quota, reached a conclusive stage as the activist announced that the government had accepted his demands and he was ending the march to Mumbai.

With this move, Shinde, himself a Maratha, who has been facing uncertainty over his future, has managed to score over his political rivals as he garners credit for “giving reservation to Marathas”.

After engineering a split in Shiv Sena and pulling down the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in June, 2022, he became chief minister of the state. He also survived the legal battle in the Supreme Court recently. However, over the past two years, his ability to lead the ruling alliance against the MVA coalition, led by Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, has been questioned, as also his capacity to run the government. Ajit Pawar’s entry, following the split in NCP, led to speculations that Shinde’s exit was certain as the BJP had managed to get a popular Maratha leader in its alliance.

Equally, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis’s displeasure with Shinde was no secret. The first few days of the Maratha agitation, when the Shinde-led government seemed clueless about managing the situation, added grist to speculations.

Shinde, however, turned the challenge into an opportunity.

Since last September when a lathicharge on Maratha community members who had gathered to support Jarange-Patil’s fast in Jalna put the government in trouble, Shinde threw himself into the thick of things. He went to end Jarange-Patil’s first hunger strike in Jalna, and deputed officials and retired judges to convince him to end his second hunger strike. He went against views of several cabinet ministers and pushed for a special campaign to give Kunbi certificates to Marathas, demanded by the activist. Interestingly, while the activist continued to sharply criticise leaders of the ruling alliance and opposition, he insisted that he respected Shinde.

Now, with his latest move, Shinde has positioned himself as the alliance’s most Maratha-friendly face. Comprising one third of the population Marathas are politically significant and have been dominating state politics for decades.

The development could be useful for Shinde in cementing his position within the ruling alliance as well as against political battle with the opposition. On the other hand, it could be a doubled-edged sword, feel some of his colleagues as well as analysts.

First, the decisions taken by Shinde will have to stand legal scrutiny. Second, he has to face a disgruntled OBC community, whose leaders are preparing to oppose the decisions which could lead to friction between the two communities.

The government has sought suggestions and objections on the notification giving reservation benefits to blood relatives of the Marathas who get Kunbi certificate till February 16. OBC outfits are planning to send objections on a large scale.

After a final notification is issued, the decision is expected to be challenged in court; if the latter puts it hold or worse, sets it aside, there is likely to be a face-off between Marathas and OBCs.

“The OBCs are not happy with the decision of the government. If there is a Maratha versus OBC war, it may damage our prospects,” said a senior BJP minister who did not want to be named.

“The reservation issue is not over. Shinde government will have a tough task defending its decisions. If it fails, Shinde could be accused of misleading the Marathas,” said Padmabhushan Deshpande, a Mumbai-based political analyst.

“On the other hand, the existing castes in the OBC category are getting restless and may go against the Shinde government. However, it is not easy to predict how the arithmetic would work in favour or against the ruling alliance. At this juncture, Shinde seems to have scored over his rivals,” he added.