What’s at stake for Congress: Polls put caste census demand, INDIA to test

Hours before Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar announced the dates for the next round of state elections, the Congress’ top leadership had gathered in Delhi to firm up their election strategy.

The Congress Working Committee (CWC) had only one big agenda, with chief ministers Ashok Gehlot, Siddaramaiah, Bhupesh Baghel and Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu joining the deliberations of the highest decision-making body — to get everyone on board to push for the caste census, something the party considers key to its Lok Sabha campaign.

“The atmosphere is positive,’’ said former president and CWC member Rahul Gandhi, remarking on the party’s prospects. But while Gandhi publicly declared that the Congress would retain power in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, while defeating incumbents in Madhya Pradesh and Telangana, privately, the party’s strategists were much more circumspect. The results on December 3 will have multiple implications — not just for the party but for the INDIA bloc.

Firstly, the assembly elections may be the first indicator of whether the Congress’s gambit of taking up the issue of the caste census, something it believes will get it an edge among other backward classes (OBCs) will work for them or not. In the state of Telangana, where the Congress is hoping to give the KCR government a run for its money, the latest NFHS figures show OBCs account for 48% of the population. With Dalit and tribals, this proportion swells to 75% — making it, the party’s election strategists said, an ideal testing ground to see if the issue gains traction. To be sure, unlike the three Hindi belt states going to the polls, Telangana is not a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress but a three-cornered one, with Congress being the main challenger to the Bharat Rashtra Samithi. Chhattisgarh has 45% OBC voters, while Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have 40% and 38% OBC voters, respectively.

“We will definitely get benefit from our push for a caste census in the Hindi belt states,’’ said one strategist on condition of anonymity. “In places like Kerala, it will be tricky because there, the upper castes like the Nair community are our traditional voters. But if you look at the entire country overall, then the Congress does stand to gain from it.” Already Rajasthan has announced its own caste survey and the Congress has promised similar enumeration exercises in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh if it wins in the states.

The issue has been a rallying cry for the party since earlier this year, with Gandhi making it his single point agenda at all his press conferences and public speeches inside and outside parliament. A win in one or more of the states on this plank will give the party confidence in the run up to the general elections.

The second takeaway for the Congress party will be how the elections play out for the opposition alliance. When asked if the INDIA bloc was with the Congress on the OBC-caste census issue, Gandhi said he was “sure that a majority of the INDIA parties will also be on board.’’ However, it’s an open secret that the Trinamool Congress (TMC) doesn’t share Congress’ enthusiasm on the matter. Caste politics has not been a major part of Bengal’s elections, even though the BJP has focussed on certain Dalit groups in the state such as the Rajbanshis in recent elections. To counter such efforts, the TMC prefers to focus on issues such as inflation and unemployment. Queried about this on the day Bihar’s caste survey report was released (October 2), party spokesperson and Rajya Sabha MP Derek O’Brien simply said that the INDIA bloc remains united in all its issues.

“If we fail to win any state, then our standing within the INDIA bloc will obviously go down but if we win a couple of the states, then the confidence of the alliance will go up in a big way,’’ said an AICC member on condition of anonymity.

For now, party insiders are most confident about the state of Chhattisgarh. CM Bhupesh Baghel has consolidated his position in the last four years and the party also stepped in earlier this year to placate TS Singh Deo, by making him deputy CM.

In Rajasthan, the party may have successfully, albeit belatedly, dealt with infighting but the problem is that Ashok Gehlot is fighting against a prevailing trend of the incumbent being voted out. “Every month our vote share is rising, that is the best we can say. However, our sitting legislators are facing major anti-incumbency,’’ said a person aware of details. Here, the party hopes that BJP’s own reluctance to name a chief ministerial candidate will help.

Party strategists are much more confident with former chief minister Kamal Nath’s campaign in Madhya Pradesh, especially as the BJP government’s 20-year run (barring a 15-month gap in-between) may have resulted in voter fatigue according to the party’s own assessment. “It is Congress’ election to lose,’’ is how the strategist mentioned above, described the situation. It’s now all down to choosing the right candidate in every constituency, he added.

The state which has proved to be the biggest surprise for the Congress, party members say, is Telengana, where the party is now seen as the main challenger to chief minister K Chandrashekar Rao’s government — although, they add in the same breath that it is still no match for the ruling party’s resources and infrastructure on the ground.

Finally, it’s all eyes on Rahul Gandhi who has taken on the mantle of being the grand old party’s mascot. No longer tied down by daily administrative decisions, which are left to party president Mallikarjun Kharge, Gandhi will begin his poll campaign with a Madhya Pradesh rally on Tuesday, followed by extensive campaigns in all states going to the polls, including Mizoram. 2023 began well for the party with a sweep of Karnataka seats, but the question is, will it end just as well?