US skips key climate meet, fanning fears it will ditch UN framework

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s meeting in Hangzhou, China opened on Monday with reports that US has withdrawn from the seventh assessment cycle presently underway. With the Trump administration announcing its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, its absence in Hangzhou suggests that the US could withdraw from the UN Climate Convention itself.

IPCC, the main UN body for assessing the science related to climate change represented by hundreds of leading scientists globally, did not comment on US’s withdrawal immediately.

Responding to a query from HT on how the US absence would impact progress of IPCC’s work said: “All 195 IPCC member countries receive invitations to IPCC Plenaries. The composition of delegations and their attendance of these meetings are decisions made by respective governments. As the IPCC sessions are closed, we do not discuss the presence, absence or attendance of delegates. The list of delegates will be published, as usual, in the report of the meeting in due course.”

What this essentially means that US scientists will not participate in IPCC’s review and the US will not be contributing funding to IPCC. IPCC is meeting in Hangzhou to finalise the outlines of the three Working Group contributions to the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) and the Methodology Report on Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies, Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage. These are due in 2028.

On Monday, in his opening speech, Jim Skea, IPCC chair. said he acknowledges the contribution from IPCC members so far. “Both support for the science that powers our assessments and generous voluntary contributions. Government support ensures the scientific integrity and continuity of the IPCC as the most authoritative and policy-relevant voice on climate science globally,” he said.

Paris Agreement goals in danger

Inger Andersen, executive director of United Nations Environment Programme said at the opening: “The goals of the Paris Agreement are in danger. But let us remember that every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of deadly and damaging impacts. Therefore, every tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent avoided counts. Every day, week and month counts. The IPCC stands unequivocally for the best science the world can deliver. Science is physics, not politics. Science cannot be politicized because science will always remain science. The IPCC has the clout to take this message to the world and show us what must be done, starting with the decisions taken at this session.”

Scientists pointed out that even if there is a temporary sense of comfort among citizens in certain countries that money will not be diverted for climate action, in reality overshoot of Paris goals is expected to be far more costly.

“The urgency of climate action has never been greater, yet we are witnessing a troubling shift where right-wing governments globally are de-prioritising climate commitments. A striking example is the United States’ withdrawal from critical IPCC efforts — they have shut down their technical support unit, scaled back participation in the upcoming assessment cycle, and significantly cut funds for climate-related activities. This will have far-reaching consequences on the global scientific and policy landscape, affecting research, mitigation strategies, and adaptation efforts in vulnerable regions,” said Roxy Matthew Koll, climate scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and IPCC author.

Few countries update their NDCs

A slowing down of climate action was seen as very few countries have updated their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by the February deadline. Most G20 members, including major economies such as China, India, and the EU are yet to announce 2035 NDCs and have missed the initially agreed UNFCCC deadline of February 10. Several have however indicated plans to submit targets ahead of COP30 in Belem in November. Canada, Japan, Brazil, UK and UAE are among countries that have updated NDCs.

India’s environment ministry did not immediately respond to a query from HT on whether India would update its NDC though officials familiar with the matter said on condition of anonymity that a political decision on the matter is awaited and there is still time to update NDC. A disappointing outcome on climate finance at the last climate talks at Baku, COP29 has been flagged repeatedly by India .

The US withdrawal could be an opportunity for India to “step up” some experts said.

“The moment also presents an opportunity: as some nations retreat from climate leadership, India can step up. With its scientific expertise, diverse ecosystems, and pressing need for adaptation, India is uniquely positioned to lead climate action — at least regionally, if not globally. By investing in research, strengthening early warning systems, and integrating climate resilience into policy and infrastructure, India can demonstrate that sustainable development and economic growth are not mutually exclusive,” Koll said.

Climate change

The physics of climate change is straightforward unlike politics, said Carlo Buontempo, Copernicus Climate Change Service.

“When approaching the issue of climate change from the prospective of a climate scientist we are actually facing a problem that is way simpler than those many politicians face on a daily basis. The physics driving global warming is clear and it has been well understood for over a century. Also, the solution is clear: if the goal of our society is to limit the warming of the climate system, reducing GHG emission globally is the most effective way to do it. And global is the keyword here. As it was the case for the ozone hole before, this is a global challenge that can only be tackled with global solutions. In this process we have precious allies. We have never before had the understanding, the modelling capability and the data that we now have about the climate around us,” he said.

“This is a strategic asset that should help humanity take the best-informed decision about its future. And I like to think this data and knowledge should be treasured as a precious gift by anyone who has at heart our collective destiny, irrespective of their specific political ideology or party. Global problems are best tackled through a free an open exchange of the basic observations and data under the auspices of the UN and its agencies. We look forward to continuing working with all the relevant institutions around the world to support such a coordinated international effort towards a shared awareness of our climate, its variability and its long term changes,” he explained.

“The science is clear that we had to reduce emissions by half by the end of 2030s to be on track for 1.5°C. However, now given the fact that very little actual emission reduction has happened so far, we are looking at crossing 1.5°C by the middle or end of next decade and be on the way to overshoot. However, the amount of overshoot will depend on how rapidly we can reduce emissions so overall while meeting the Paris agreement is not yet out of grasp, it is extremely important to reduce emissions in an equitable and fair manner and as fast as possible, and that is exactly why this decade was so crucial,” said Aditi Mukherji, Nairobi-based climate scientist, director, Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Impact Action Platform of the CGIAR and IPCC author.