US says secret nuclear strategy not a response to single country or threat

A classified nuclear strategic plan approved by President Joe Biden this year is not a response to a single country or threat, the White House said on Tuesday, after the New York Times reported it reoriented the US deterrence strategy to focus on China’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal for the first time.

The US-based Arms Control Association said it understood US nuclear weapons strategy and posture remained the same as described in the administration’s 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, and there had been no reorientation away from Russia and toward China.

The New York Times said the White House had never announced that Biden had approved the revised strategy, titled the “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” but an unclassified notification to Congress of the revision is expected to be sent before Biden leaves office.

The newspaper said that in recent speeches, two senior administration officials were allowed to allude to the strategy revision. It said the strategy is updated every four years or so.

Asked about the report, White House spokesperson Sean Savett said: “This administration, like the four administrations before it, issued a Nuclear Posture Review and Nuclear Weapons Employment Planning Guidance.

“While the specific text of the Guidance is classified, its existence is in no way secret. The Guidance issued earlier this year is not a response to any single entity, country, nor threat.”

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said that while US intelligence estimates suggest China may increase the size its nuclear arsenal from 500 to 1,000 warheads by 2030, Russia currently has some 4,000 nuclear warheads “and it remains the major driver behind US nuclear strategy.”

Kimball cited June remarks by one of the officials referred to in the Times report, White House Senior Director for Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation Pranay Vaddi.

According to those remarks, US strategy was to pursue nuclear arms restraints with China and Russia, but if China continued on its current trajectory and if Russia exceeds New START limits, the US at some point in the future may need to consider adjustments to the size and makeup of its nuclear force, Kimball said.

“My understanding is that the point at which the current administration thinks it might want to consider such changes won’t come until 2030, or some time after,” he said.