Unusual April weather points to climate change
The unseasonal rain in April 2022 measuring 52mm impacted cashew, mango and other crops across the state. The disruption in nature’s cycle on and below ground with frogs and earthworms crawling out and flowers blooming early has scientists and others taking note.
Eighty five years ago in April 1937 a much heavier rainfall of 229m made it a watershed month. After last month’s rain meteorolgists, ecologists and even lay persons have started relating unusual changes in nature’s cycle to climate change.
The wet, humid and overcast conditions have led to early emergence of pests. “This year the infestation of mango crop shows an increase due to higher rain in April,” Ulhas Naik, a mango businessman said.
A professional staying in Goa said that he cannot recall a wetter April in ten years than this one. “After seeing other failed crops I can see the jackfruit crop will be dismal. Earthworms seen during rains are already out.
These are only subjective observations but climatologists and biologists would know better,” he said.
“Climate change has already set in full blast due to interference with nature’s disciplined cyclicity and unusual weather and climate scenario is here to stay,” Manoj Borkar, a senior academic and noted Goan biologist said.
“This April has witnessed a fearful tango of heat and rain, challenging all events guided by seasonability.
Phenology of plants and animals has changed and we see abnormal patterns of flowering, fruiting and breeding. Soil seed stock has already sprouted to the benefit of many insect pests otherwise emerging only after rains,” he said.
In April 2022 when it was not as hot, overcast conditions seemed to prevail longer than usual. A few brisk showers followed. But when it rained, it poured as per the new normal of seemingly changing weather conditions.
“In two to three days we had intense rainfall instead of (the one) May for one and half hour to two hours from 3.30am to 5am at Panaji. This has influenced the phenology of plants and animals as weather parameters such as air temperature, solar radiation, humidity and soil moisture are all influencing factors,” M R Ramesh Kumar, meteorologist and former chief scientist, National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), Dona Paula said.
Rahul M, scientist, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Panaji said that data of at least 30 years and few parameters including temperature and rainfall have to be considered to consider effects of climate change.
“But the available data of maximum temperature in Panaji from 1969 onwards till date indicates that April 2022 wasn’t the warmest for Goa. Nor was it the wettest based on available rainfall data from 1901 to 2022,” he said.
The last few years have witnessed unusual events — hail storms in winter, extremely heavy pre-monsoon rain in May 2021, a series of cyclones, some disastrously impactful and massive flooding in wetter than usual monsoons with intense rainfall and long breaks.
“Heat waves which were supposed to appear in 2025 have already hit the Indian subcontinent ahead of time. This is because climate change process has been speeded up and this is worrisome,” Kumar said.
The out-of-season emergence of species, especially, animals has to be in sync with resource availability for their survival. “Extreme heat followed by heavy rains can deplete oxygen stocks in water bodies. Frogs like other species emerging early may not find suitable wetland habitat to breed,” Borkar said.
Nature has a disciplined cycles and despite advance warnings, the built-in clock has been disturbed. “We have long lost time to prevent climate change but now we can only slow it down and invest in adaptive resilience,” he stated.