Two years after Galwan, de-escalation still to take place on Ladakh LAC

Two years after troops of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) transgressed into Galwan Valley on May 5, 2020, an uneasy stalemate prevails between India and Chinese army along the 1597 km Line of Actual Control (LAC) in East Ladakh with incomplete disengagement from Kongka La area and unresolved patrolling issues in Depsang and Demchok areas.

While no less than 15 rounds of meetings between Indian and Chinese senior military commanders have taken place to restore April 2020 status quo ante on the unresolved border, the PLA is still forwardly located in the KongKa La area or what is defined as patrolling point 15 on the military map. After Galwan, the Chinese Army transgressed into areas of Kugrang River, a tributary of Shyok river, Gogra, and north banks of Pangong Tso on May 17-18.

Although the two armies have been able to disengage from Pangong Tso, Galwan and Gogra-Hot Springs area, the PLA is still to move back from KongKa La, which defines the Chinese border claims as per 1959 Line on the LAC. One must remember that the Chinese disengaged from Galwan in July 2020 after the June 15 clashes where the Indian Army lost 20 troops but only after inflicting undisclosed casualties on the PLA troops.

The disengagement from north banks of Pangong Tso took place in February 2021 after an audacious action by Indian Army on the south banks of the saltwater lake on August 29-31, 2020. In a swift move, the Indian Army and Special Frontier Force occupied key heights on the south banks of the lake making Chinese positions in Moldo militarily vulnerable.

Had it not been for the Indian Army action, the PLA would have dragged its feet on disengagement from the north banks of the lake. The disengagement from Gogra post on Chang Chemo River, that joins Kugrang River in general west direction, took place on August 2021.

Even though both sides have achieved disengagement to a large extent on the East Ladakh LAC, there has been no de-escalation of troops in the region with both armies present in full strength with armored, rocket, artillery, and missile support. There has been no let down in alert on the Indian side as inputs indicated that the PLA may take advantage of the Ukraine conflict to transgress into fresh areas on the LAC. There are strict instructions from the Modi government that any PLA belligerence on the LAC must be matched and replied in kind without ceding an inch of territory.

The two countries have bilaterally discussed the issue at apex diplomatic level with Beijing wanting to normalize relations while the military dialogue takes place parallelly. The Indian side has made it clear that the road to normalization of relations goes through East Ladakh with India wanting unhindered patrolling rights in Depsang Bulge area and the Charding Nullah Junction area in Demchok. The PLA is blocking access routes to both these friction points leading to military face-offs as the Indian Army manages to send patrols into these areas despite hurdles.

The Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso lake are quiet, but the PLA has fortified on its side with a new bridge over the salt-water lake for inter-change of troops and logistical supply in the worst-case scenario. The Indian side has also strengthened all along the 3,488 km LAC with clear cut instructions to the troops guarding the north frontiers.