Too soon to mediate in Ukraine war, hints EAM Jaishankar

External affairs minister S Jaishankar on Thursday said it will be “premature” to speak of India acting as a facilitator to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, and countries impacted by the conflict can only hope to nudge the main players in a positive direction.

Jaishankar also cautioned that India will have to get its act together to cope with an “uncertain, unpredictable, volatile, turbulent” world and a decade with a “far more fluid international situation”, including “frictions and possibly worse”.

Though some underlying issues in the military standoff with China on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) have been worked out, Jaishankar reiterated that the overall bilateral relationship cannot be normalised till there is peace and tranquillity in the border areas, observance of agreements and “no unilateral attempt…to change status quo”.

Against the backdrop of increased speculation about a possible role for India in mediating between Russia and Ukraine, Jaishankar responded to a question on the issue by describing it as “premature”. “In a way, we are not looking, we cannot approach today’s problems with models or experiences — this is a very, very different situation in which we are in today,” he said in a conversation with HT’s editor-in-chief R Sukumar at the 20th Hindustan Times Leadership Summit.

The speculation had increased ahead of Jaishankar’s visit to Russia during November 7-8, when he met his counterpart Sergey Lavrov and other Russian leaders for discussions on expanding economic ties, including energy supplies.

Countries that believe this is “not an era of war”, as was pointed out by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Russian President Vladimir Putin during a bilateral meeting in Uzbekistan in September, and that issues cannot be settled on the battlefield and there is a need for players to get back to the negotiating table, can “articulate their concerns and try to shape the thinking of those more directly involved in a positive direction”, Jaishankar said.

“I think beyond that, to suggest anything else, I don’t think is justified at this point of time,” he added.

Jaishankar said the global order and globalisation model have been “more and more challenged” since the international financial crisis of 2008, and the Covid-19 pandemic “brought out into the open a lot of the problems which till then had been kept firmly under the carpet”. Supply chains were very fragile, production was overly concentrated and people were dependent on limited geographies, he said.

The Ukraine conflict added to stress factors and “fragility can be enhanced by terrorist actions” or even the climate crisis. “Overall, I would say [in the] short to medium term, I would be looking at a very unsettled world, at a lot of turbulence and volatility. I think this is a time when we frankly need leadership, experience, ability to guide this nation in rough seas. Believe me, the rough seas — you can already feel the waves,” he said.

Jaishankar added, “You are going to have really perhaps for this decade, a far more fluid international situation where there will be ebbs and flows, and combinations and issues and frictions and possibly worse, which is what we have seen… I do not see a settling down among major players in the near term.”

India needs to “get our act together” for an “uncertain, unpredictable, volatile, turbulent” world, he cautioned. “And a large part of getting our act together is doing the right things at home, building up the strengths at home, doing the governance, the delivery, the creation of capabilities and assets,” he said.

“At this time, it’s particularly vital that we find our feet and we stay strong because there is this… sense of a long period of global uncertainty before us.”

Responding to a question in the standoff with China that began in May 2020, Jaishankar said that “unless there is peace and tranquillity in the border areas, unless there is observance of agreements and no unilateral attempt made to change status quo, the relationship cannot be normal and is not normal”.

The events of 2020 on the LAC were “an attempt by one party, and we know which one, to depart from agreements and understandings and that is at the heart of the issue”. Since then, the two sides have made progress in some respects. “Relatively speaking, there were multiple friction points. In those friction points, there was dangerously close up deployments by the military. I think some of those issues have been worked out keeping in mind equal and mutual security,” he said.

“But there are some which still need to be worked upon… It’s important to persevere and to keep pushing. Because it is tough or it is complicated, you don’t say, well that’s not going to happen… I do genuinely believe that there will be, there should be a realisation that the present state of relations is not even in China’s own interest.”

India is doing a lot of things in terms of policies and pronouncements, and there is no ambiguity about the country’s signalling and messaging, he said. “They (China) will weigh it from their interests and where they are but… it isn’t just a matter of public sentiment, and public sentiment is strong… I do not think that the current state can continue without damage to the relationship,” he added.

Jaishankar described the US as one of India’s principal partners today in the political, military and economic spheres. “I cannot overstate the importance of this relationship. My sense of what has changed in the last few years is that the two countries are looking at the relationship and then examining and strategising how it applies to a world in transformation,” he said.

The term “sea change” to describe the transformation in relations with the US “would be a gross understatement”, and the level of contact, comfort, openness and ability to work together are remarkable, he said.

Though there were historical reasons for a distrust of the West, India’s contemporary interests are served well by working closely with Western countries, Jaishankar said. India’s standing as a democratic society with a pluralistic ethos and its market economy bring it closer to the West, and “that calculation today is reciprocated by the West”, he added.

Responding to a question on whether the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad, which brings together India, Australia, Japan and the US, had become more institutionalised, he said: “I would not get over-focused on this whole institutionalisation of Quad… That’s exactly what we are not trying to do. The idea of Quad is a sort of an easy, comfortable consultation process, an ability to work together, responding to the needs… and the issues of the day.”

The Quad, which had gone from meetings at the secretary level after its reincarnation in 2017 to the Summit-level, should be judged by its effectiveness, relevance and impact, he said.

In response to a question on how Pakistan had hardly figured in the conversation, whereas at one time it would probably have dominated the discussions, Jaishankar said “times have changed” and “for the better”

He said: “Our understanding within the government is not different from the expectations of the public. My sense is that the people of the country want a neighbourly relationship with Pakistan but they want a good neighbourly relationship, and good neighbours don’t do terrorism. I think it’s as simple as that.”