Telangana contest likely between Congress and BJP as BRS struggles

The debacle of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in the recent assembly elections in Telangana has paved way for a near-straight fight between the two national parties —the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party in majority of the Lok Sabha constituencies in the state — elections for which are scheduled on May 13.

In the assembly elections held on November 30 last year, the fight was mostly between the then ruling BRS led by K Chandrasekhar Rao and the Congress led by A Revanth Reddy. The Congress came to power by winning 64 seats in the 119-member assembly with a vote share of 39.40%, as against 39 seats of the BRS, which got 37.35% votes.

Though the BJP was in the race for power till early 2023, it was relegated to the third position by the time the assembly elections were held in November. Yet, the party improved its position to a large extent, from just one MLA seat in 2018 to eight seats in 2023, with the percentage of vote share being doubled from 6.98% to 13.90% in a span of five years.

Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the BRS received several setbacks, with a large number of its leaders — right from constituency-level leaders, a few MPs and MLAs and senior leaders like BRS parliamentary party leader K Kesava Rao defecting to the Congress and the BJP in the last five months.

The BRS had won nine Lok Sabha seats out of 17 in Telangana in 2019 general elections, but five of them had defected to the two national parties after the party’s debacle in the assembly elections. While two of them — P Ramulu from Nagarkurnool and B B Patil from Zaheerabad joined the BJP, the other three — Venkatesh Netha from Peddapalli, Pasunuri Dayakar from Warangal and G Ranjith Reddy from Chevella joined the Congress.

Besides, three MLAs – T Venkat Rao from Bhadrachalam, Kadiyam Srihari from Station Ghanpur and Danam Nagender from Khairtabad defected to the Congress. Many other BRS MLAs have already met chief minister A Revanth Reddy and are expected to join the Congress after the Lok Sabha elections.

Similarly, leaders like Sanampudi Saidi Reddy from Nalgonda and Aroori Ramesh from Warangal, considered to be die-hard loyalists of KCR, defected to the BJP.

“Obviously, defection of so many leaders into the Congress and the BJP eroded the BRS vote base in several constituencies. Even those who were given the party tickets for Lok Sabha elections, like Kadiyam Kavya in Warangal and G Ranjit Reddy from Chevella, have rejected the tickets and are contesting on the Congress tickets. So, the BRS has struggled to find right candidates in the Lok Sabha elections,” pointed out political analyst and author Sriram Karri.

The BRS fielded only three of its sitting MPs – Nama Nageshwara Rao in Khammam, M Srinivas Reddy in Mahabubnagar and Maloth Kavitha from Mahabubabad in the current Lok Sabha polls. “In all the remaining 14 seats, except in a few places like Secunderabad, Medak and Alampur, the candidates are either weak or non-serious,” Karri said.

Consequently, Karri said, the BRS would find it difficult to retain the vote share of 37.35% it got in the assembly elections and a large part of it will go to the Congress and the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections.

“The Lok Sabha elections are fought on a different narrative – it will be (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi factor for the BJP and the anti-Modi factor for the Congress. The Telangana sentiment of the BRS doesn’t work out in the present context,” the analyst said.

The BJP, which could win just one assembly seat in the 2018 assembly elections in Telangana, bounced back within five months and won four Lok Sabha seats in the state in April 2019 Lok Sabha elections. “In the last five years, the BJP has gained a lot of ground in the state as was evident from the impressive show in the recent assembly elections in which it won eight assembly seats. We are going to repeat the show in the Lok Sabha elections, too,” claimed BJP state president and Union minister G Kishan Reddy.

During his public rally at Siddipet on April 25, Union home minister Amit Shah exuded the confidence that the BJP would win not less than 12 out of 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana. “However, we are confident of reaching the double-digit mark this time – winning at least 10 seats,” a senior BJP leader said on the condition of anonymity.

The BJP, which has declared its candidates much ahead of the Congress, has stepped up its campaign across the state and with several national leaders all set to address a series of rallies in the next two weeks, the party is in an aggressive mood.

While Shah addressed a rally on April 25, BJP national president J P Nadda addressed a rally at Kothagudem on Monday. The Prime Minister will be addressing his first election rally at Zaheerabad on Tuesday. “It is going to be Modi wave in Telangana, as the Congress and the BRS have virtually gone into a silent mode in several constituencies,” Kishan Reddy said on Monday.

On the other hand, the Congress, which has fielded strong candidates in several constituencies, is banking entirely on the charisma of Revanth Reddy, who is making a whirlwind campaign across the state, targeting the BJP primarily and countering the allegations of the BRS on the implementation of the pre-election promises in the last five months. “It is going to be a referendum on the performance of my government in the last five months. I am sure the people have appreciated the implementation of most of the guarantees we have promised and they will not get carried away by the emotional appeals of the BJP,” Reddy told reporters on Saturday.