An active Western Disturbance is very likely to affect Northwest India from 02nd February 2022. An induced cyclonic circulation is likely to form over southwest Rajasthan & the neighborhood on 03rd February 2022. In addition, moisture feeding on the Arabian Sea to northwest India at lower & middle tropospheric levels is also very likely on 02nd & 03rd February 2022.
Rainfall Forecast & Warnings:
• Isolated to scattered light/moderate rainfall very likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya and Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura during 31st January to 03rd with increased activity on 01st February, 2022.
• Isolated light rainfall very likely over Tamilnadu-Puducherry-Karaikal during next 48 hours and Kerala-Mahe during next 5 days.
• Light isolated rainfall/snowfall is likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad during next 3 days and increase thereafter.
•Surface winds (speed 15-25 kmph) likely over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh during next 2 days.
• Under the influence of a fresh active Western Disturbance & its induced cyclonic circulation; fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall/snowfall very likely over Western Himalayan Region during 02nd to 04th February. Isolated hailstorm likely over the region on 03rd February, 2022.
• Due to interaction between mid-tropospheric south-westerlies associated with the above Western Disturbance and lower level southeasterlies from the Bay of Bengal:
• Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall very likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh during 02nd to 04th February. Isolated hailstorm likely over Punjab, Haryana and northwest Uttar Pradesh on 03rd February.
• Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim on 03rd & 04th and over Assam & Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura on 04th & 05th February, 2022.
• Cold wave conditions in isolated pockets very likely over Punjab, southern parts of West Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, north Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada during next 24 hours and abate from tomorrow. Cold day conditions in isolated pockets very likely over Uttarakhand, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours and abate from tomorrow.
• Dense Fog conditions in isolated pockets in night/morning hours very likely over Terai belt of East Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours and over west Assam & Meghalaya during next 2 days; over Gangetic West Bengal on 01st & 02nd February and over Odisha on 03rd February.