Quad on geopolitics: Strongest language on China yet, concern about Ukraine

Deploying the strongest language it has used so far against China’s activities in the Indo-Pacific, without mentioning China, Quad’s leaders have said they are “seriously concerned” about the situation in the South and East China Seas, listed out specific actions that warrant concern, and backed international legal frameworks and dispute resolution verdicts that Beijing has rejected.

In the Wilmington Declaration issued after PM Narendra Modi, President Joe Biden, Australian PM Anthony Albanese and Japanese PM Fumio Kishida met on Saturday in Biden’s hometown, Quad expressed concern over the “militarisation” of disputed features and the “coercive and intimidating maneuvers” in South China Sea.

A comparison of the Wilmington and Hiroshima declaration, issued in May 2023 when the same set of four leaders last met, reveals that the section on developments in the maritime space in South and East China seas is more elaborate and blunt. The four countries also laid out their positions on Ukraine, calling for peace and respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and for the first time at the leaders level, extensively dealt with the situation in West Asia, calling for a hostage deal and ceasefire immediately and a two state solution.

Commenting on the geopolitical highlights of the Quad declaration, Dhruva Jaishankar, executive director of the Observer Research Foundation-America, said, “The Quad joint statement was, as usual, detailed but contained stronger language than in the past on condemning the use of force in the Indo-Pacific. It also contained some broad agreement on strategic developments, such as in Gaza, Yemen, Myanmar, and even Ukraine.”

On turbulence in the waters

In the backdrop of China’s aggression against Philippines in particular in the maritime space, Quad condemned the “the dangerous use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels, including increasing use of dangerous maneuvers”. Quad opposed efforts to “disrupt other countries’ offshore resource exploitation activities”.

Quad leaders reaffirmed that “maritime disputes must be resolved peacefully” and in accordance with international law, as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, a framework that China has consistently rejected and violated. Quad leaders re-emphasised “the universal and unified character of UNCLOS” and reaffirmed that UNCLOS sets out the legal framework “within which all activities in the oceans and the seas must be carried out”.

Quad also underscored that the 2016 Arbitral Award on the South China Sea — a decision that went in favour of Philippines against China and wasn’t accepted by China — as a “significant milestone and the basis for peacefully resolving disputes between the parties”.

On Ukraine

Quad also took a similar position but with some significant nuanced differences on the war in Ukraine in its declaration on Saturday. The fact that PM Narendra Modi visited Kyiv found its way into the declaration.

Reiterating that Quad stood for “principles of the UN Charter, including territorial integrity, sovereignty of all states, and peaceful resolution of disputes”, a position that it has consistently taken, the text went on say, “We express our deepest concern over the war raging in Ukraine including the terrible and tragic humanitarian consequences. Each of us has visited Ukraine since the war began, and seen this first-hand; we reiterate the need for a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace in line with international law, consistent with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, including respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Quad countries reiterated the negative impact of the war on global food and energy security, asserted that “use, or threat of use, of nuclear weapons is unacceptable”, and said that “all states must refrain from the threat of or use of force against the territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any state”.

On Gaza

The big change from the Hiroshima summit in the summer of 2023 is the fact that a war has been raging in West Asia for almost a year. This found strong reflection in the Quad’s Wilmington Declaration. The group of four democracies said they shared great interest in achieving peace and stability in the region. Quad “unequivocally” condemned the October 7 terror attacks, but also said that the “large-scale loss of civilian lives and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza” was unacceptable.

On the way forward, the declaration said, “We affirm the imperative of securing the release of all hostages held by Hamas, and emphasize that the deal to release hostages would bring an immediate and prolonged ceasefire in Gaza…We welcome UNSCR S/RES/2735 (2024), and strongly urge all parties concerned to work immediately and steadily toward the release of all hostages and an immediate ceasefire.” The reference is to a UN resolution that calls for an immediate ceasefire under a three-stage plan, a proposal that the US is currently pushing.

Quad also highlighted the need to increase “deliveries of life-saving humanitarian assistance throughout Gaza as well as the crucial need to prevent regional escalation” and urged all parties to “comply with international law, including international humanitarian law”. The four countries asked all parties to take “every feasible step” to protect civilian lives and facilitate the “rapid, safe and unimpeded humanitarian relief to civilians”. It underscored that the international community should support the “future recovery and reconstruction of Gaza”.

All Quad partners also said that they remain committed to a “sovereign, viable and independent Palestinian state taking into account Israel’s legitimate security concerns as part of a two-state solution that enables both Israelis and Palestinians to live in a just, lasting, and secure peace”. And it said that “unilateral actions” that undermined the prospect of a two-state solution, “including Israeli expansion of settlements and violent extremism on all sides”, must end.

At a time when the region is on the brink of an escalation in conflict, given the increased tensions between Israel and Lebanon, Quad also underscored the need to prevent the conflict from escalating and spilling over in the region. It also condemned the ongoing attacks perpetrated by the Houthis and their supporters against international and commercial vessels transiting through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and said these were “destabilizing the region and impeding navigational rights and freedoms and trade flows”, and jeopardising the “safety of vessels and people on board including sailors”.

The parts of the Wilmington declaration dealing with the most pressing geopolitical issues show that all Quad partners have similar levels of concern and apprehension about China and have a similar prescription for the way forward in terms of wanting Beijing to play by the rules. Quad partners also appear to have common goals in both West Asia — of a hostage deal, ceasefire, humanitarian relief, two-state solution, Israeli restraint, prevention of escalation, opposition to terror — and Ukraine — peace in keeping with principles of sovereignty — even if the four countries may have different policy pathways, based on their distinct relationships with the key protagonists in the conflict on how to get there.