Modi govt pushes for nuclear-sub deterrence against China
With the Narendra Modi government giving approval for construction of two nuclear powered attack submarines this month, India is signaling sub-surface deterrence in favor of a third aircraft carrier as the latter is more vulnerable to Chinese long range missiles.
The priority given to sub-surface deterrence is understandable with at least 10 Chinese warships, ballistic missile trackers, surveillance ships present in the Indian Ocean Region per month since 2023. Even now Chinese surveillance ship Xiang Yang Hong 3 is off the coast of Chennai in South Bay of Bengal with a ballistic missile tracker Yuan Wang 7 off the coast of Mauritius. An average of seven to eight PLA Navy warships and around three to four quasi military ships are seen present in the Indian Ocean Region and the number is slated to increase with PLA planning long range patrols for its carrier based task forces.
With increased Chinese presence in the IOR, the national security planners chose nuclear submarines to deter and monitor PLA activity particularly in the south Indian Ocean. While India already has two nuclear ballistic missile submarines patrolling the Indo-Pacific, the third one INS Aridhaman will be commissioned next year. Barring first in the class, INS Arihant, which has only 750 kilometer range K-15 nuclear ballistic missiles, all the successors carry a mix of K-15 and 3500 km range K-4 nuclear ballistic missiles.
On the nuclear powered attack submarine front, the Indian Navy is slated to get a second Akula class nuclear attack submarine on lease from Russia latest by 2028. The Akula lease project has been delayed due to the Russian war in Ukraine but the Indian Navy is putting pressure on Moscow to make the SSN available by late 2027.
The approval of two SSNs for the Indian Navy also shows a shift of Indian strategic priorities as Pakistan no longer is the principal adversary and the main military threat on land and sea comes from Communist China. The Chinese aggression in east Ladakh in May 2020 has forced Indian security planners to prepare for the sea deterrence options as majority of trade to East and North Asia goes off the coast of Lakshadweep and off the coast of Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Even though the Modi government has decided in favour of three more advanced Kalvari (Scorpene) class submarines, the diesel attack submarines are to deter regional threats as well as make Mazagon Dockyards Limited as the hub for exporting Scorpene class submarines to third countries in collaboration with France.
It is quite evident from the above that the future of the Indian Navy lies in the nuclear option, given that it is facing a challenge from China and its proxies in the Indo-Pacific.