Extreme weather events to hit 70% of world’s population in next 20 years: Study

Nearly three-quarters of the global population could face rapid and intense changes in extreme weather patterns within the next two decades unless greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced, according to a new study published in Nature Geoscience.

The research, led by scientists from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, reveals that 70% of people worldwide may experience extreme temperature and rainfall events if limited action is taken to curb emissions.

However, this figure could be reduced to 20% if emissions are cut sufficiently to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

Using large climate model simulations, the study found that vast regions of the tropics and subtropics are likely to experience strong joint rates of change in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20 years under a high-emissions scenario.

These rapid changes heighten the risk of unprecedented conditions and extreme events, which already account for a disproportionate share of climate change impacts.

Dr. Carley Iles, the lead author, emphasized the importance of focusing on regional changes, as they are more relevant to people’s experiences and ecosystem impacts compared to global averages.

The study highlights that society is particularly vulnerable to high rates of change in extremes, especially when multiple hazards increase simultaneously.

The research also uncovered an unexpected finding: the rapid reduction of air pollution, particularly in Asia, could lead to accelerated increases in warm extremes and influence Asian summer monsoons. While cleaning the air is crucial for health reasons, it may temporarily amplify the effects of global warming in certain regions.

Dr. Bjorn H. Samset from CICERO stressed the urgent need for climate adaptation, stating that even in the best-case scenario, rapid changes will affect 1.5 billion people.

He emphasised the importance of preparing for a future with a much higher likelihood of unprecedented extreme events within the next 1-2 decades.

This study sheds light on the critical importance of immediate and decisive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change on global populations.