European climate change service says 2024 on track to be warmest year on record
With global temperatures for the January-August period recorded at 0.70 degrees Celsius above the 1991–2020 average, the European climate change service Copernicus said on Friday that it was increasingly likely 2024 would be the warmest year on record.
According to the latest update from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), August was the joint warmest August globally (along with August 2023), with an average surface air temperature of 16.82 degrees Celsius — 0.71 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average for the month.
It was also 1.51 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, making it the 13th month in the past 14 during which the global average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels.
The year-to-date (January-August) global average temperature anomaly is 0.70 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average, the highest on record for this period, and 0.23 degrees Celsius warmer than the same period in 2023, C3S scientists said.
For 2024 not to surpass 2023 as the warmest year, the average anomaly for the remaining months would need to drop by at least 0.30 degrees Celsius. This has not occurred since 1940, making it increasingly likely that 2024 will be the warmest year on record, the scientists said.
Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S, said, “During the past three months of 2024, the globe has experienced the hottest June and August, the hottest day on record, and the hottest boreal summer on record. This string of record temperatures is increasing the likelihood of 2024 being the hottest year on record.” “The temperature-related extreme events witnessed this summer will only become more intense, with more devastating consequences for people and the planet unless we take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” she said.
The global average temperature for the past 12 months (September 2023 to August 2024) is the highest on record for any 12-month period, at 0.76 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average and 1.64 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
These values are identical to those recorded for the previous two 12-month periods, ending in June 2024 and July 2024.
The average sea surface temperature for August across the 60-degree south-60-degree north latitudes was 20.91 degrees Celsius, the second-highest value on record for the month, and only 0.07 degrees Celsius below the August 2023 value.
While the equatorial Pacific had below-average temperatures, indicating a developing La Nina, sea surface temperatures across many ocean regions remained unusually high.