CO29 Climate Summit: Time for India to take the centre stage

The 29th edition of the annual UN climate summit Conference of the Parties (COP) is scheduled to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, on November 11–22, 2024. It is expected to build on the success of COP28 in Dubai and take stock of the progress in climate action.

The event will focus on the twin pillars of securing commitments of enhanced ambition and higher financial contributions by member states. Therefore, it is also being called “finance COP.”

The good news is that the industrialised nations have started to loosen their purse strings and contribute funds towards climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. However, there is a yawning gap between the funding requirements and commitments. Furthermore, there is a big gap between commitments and actual disbursals.

Let us take the example of coal, which is the most polluting fossil fuel but accounts for over one-third of global electricity generation (in 2023). China, the world’s largest emitter, is now building six times more coal capacity than the rest of the world combined (Foreign Affairs).

Notwithstanding a determined (and successful) push to enhance renewable energy capacity, India is forced to produce about 70 per cent of its electricity from coal. It is estimated that $25–50 billion is required annually to phase out coal-fired energy plants across the world. The rich nations want coal to be expeditiously phased out but are not putting their money where their mouth is.

Nevertheless, it is encouraging that member states agreed at COP28 to “transition away” from fossil fuels. Renewable energy, especially solar power, has become a highly attractive solution globally. Solar power supplied 5.5 per cent of global electricity in 2023. India did a shade better by generating 5.8 pe rcent of its electricity from solar, up from 0.5 per cent in 2015.

The growth in demand and technological advancement have enabled a steep reduction in solar module prices by over 90 per cent between 2010 and 2020. Solar power consequently has become the cheapest source of electricity. The global installed solar capacity has risen from 230 gigawatts in 2015 to 1050 GW in 2022. The pace is picking up. An additional 510 GW of renewable energy capacity was added the world over, of which around 75 per cent is solar. Solar power is poised to become the biggest source of electricity in the world in another decade or so.

The COP28 also took stock of progress in climate action by member states. It was agreed that they would submit updated and enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by or before February 2025. Many countries are likely to submit their NDC during COP29.

India has emerged as one of the key players in the fight against global warming. At COP26, India announced a 5-point plan of action: to establish 500 GW of non-fossil energy capacity, meet 50 per cent of its needs from renewable energy; reduce carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes and carbon intensity of the economy by 45 per cent over 2005 levels by 2030. India also pledged net zero emissions by 2070.

“In renewable energy, we are the fourth largest producer globally, with capacity increasing by 400 per cent in just a decade,” PM Narendra Modi stated last month. As of August 2024, renewable energy sources, including large hydropower, have a combined installed capacity of 199.52 GW, of which 89.4 GW is solar. According to The Economic Times, we would have to invest $293 billion to build additional solar and wind energy capacity between 2023 and 2030 to meet the targets.

Addressing COP28, the Union Minister for Environment and Climate Change noted that India was ahead in meeting its targets of reducing emission intensity and establishing renewable energy capacity. The IMF, in its working paper, has also observed that “India is already playing a leading role in the global distribution of climate technology and technology transfer, in particular, solar technology”.

India has come up with a slew of far-reaching initiatives on climate action, such as One Sun, One World, One Grid (OSOWOG), the International Solar Alliance (ISA), joined by close to 120 nations, the Leadership Group for Industry Transition (LeadIT), the Global Biofuels Alliance, Lifestyle for the Environment (LiFE), the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), Infrastructure for Resilient Island States (IRIS), and the Green Credits Initiative, to name a few.

In the last 10 years, over 103 million rural and deprived Indian households have switched to clean cooking fuels such as LPG from polluting traditional cooking fuels, with the government’s help. Close to 13 million conventional streetlights have been replaced with smart and energy-efficient LED lights across India, reducing emissions by 40 million metric tonnes annually.

This year the task of 100 per cent electrification of Indian Railways will be completed, making it the largest green railway in the world, leading to a reduction of emissions by 60 million metric tonnes annually.

The process of substituting polluting diesel buses with electric buses is gaining momentum. Single-use plastic is being phased out. Electric appliances are being made energy efficient.

The National Green Hydrogen Mission has been launched to make India the global hub for production, usage, and export of green hydrogen and its derivatives.

India has been promoting the usage of millets—as a superfood—that can be grown in adverse climate conditions. Groundwater management is being emphasised, and aquifers are being revived. Residential rainwater harvesting has been made mandatory.

To mark World Environment Day this year, PM Modi called upon everyone to plant a tree along with their mothers or in their memories—“Ek Ped Maa Ke Naam”. Many more such out-of-the box ideas are needed to strengthen environmental consciousness.

The best part is that India’s climate actions have so far been largely financed from domestic resources. India has sought international financial and technological support in line with the commitments made by the industrialised nations to step up its efforts. It remains to be seen if, when, and to what extent it would be forthcoming.

With so much progress, why are India and the world still concerned about global warming? According to NASA, our planet was about 1.36°C warmer in 2023 than in the preindustrial average in 1850. The temperatures are expected to rise at least by 2.5°- 3°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

The adverse effects are already daunting. The conditions are likely to become dire in the years ahead as the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events multiply. This is because temperature increases have a multiplier and not just a proportionate impact on the environment. While no nation is immune, India happens to be among the most vulnerable to climate change.

In India, the number of heatwave days from March to September increased fifteenfold between 1993 and 2022, according to a joint study by IPE Global and ESRI India. On May 29, this year, Delhi reportedly reeled under a searing temperature of over 52°C, the highest ever in India.

Parts of Mumbai were battered with 268 mm of rain in 24 hours on July 8. The monsoon, which is the lifeline of Indian agriculture, has become unstable. Torrential rains causing flash floods interspersed with long dry spells have become a common occurrence. Indian cities, with a brown haze and toxic air, now figure among the world’s most polluted. Severe water shortages are becoming endemic.

A Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) study tabulated extreme weather events on 314 out of the 365 days in India in 2023. A recent report by IPE Global shows that over 84% of Indian districts are now prone to extreme heat waves. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) estimates that 14 million people have been displaced due to climate change in India.

Next, let us peek at what lies ahead. A reduction in emissions intensity may not lead to a reduction in absolute emissions. Since India’s GDP in 2030 is likely to be 4.5 times what it was in 2005, a 45 per cent reduction in emissions intensity would still leave absolute emissions almost 2.5 times the level in 2005, or about 33 per cent above the 2020 level. (Brookings Institution study co-authored by Montek Ahluwalia and Utkarsh Patel)

India emits on average 2 tonnes of CO2 per person every year, compared to around 15 in the US, which is the lowest among G20 countries. There is a nine-fold gap in income levels between India and the US in terms of PPP.

As India’s GDP grows, even at much lower levels of energy and carbon intensity, an increase in Greenhouse Gases emissions and atmospheric temperature are inevitable. One shudders to imagine the havoc even a half-centigrade temperature increase will wreak on the Indian environment.

Thus, the climate crisis poses a real, immediate, and existential challenge to the Indian nation. It is heartening that both the government and populace are conscious of the enormity of the task at hand. The private sector is also playing a commendable role. Sizeable solar power generation capacity has been added through private sector investment of around $130 billion between 2004 and 2023, led by ReNew Power, Greenko, Adani Green, and Tata Power.

An all-of-nation approach entailing active public participation is essential to slay the climatic demon. India needs to make climate action a peoples’ movement, and the government of the day is quite capable of making that happen. The G20 Summit held in New Delhi in September 2023 is an excellent example. The summits used to be little more than a staid multilateral diplomatic affair. By holding over 200 events spread over 60 cities, India converted it into a national festival.

Environmental education is being and must be accorded primacy in Indian schools and colleges at all levels. A competition needs to be unleashed among Indian cities, states, people, and institutions to ‘Think Green and Act Green’. The union and state governments could suitably recognise, incentivise, and reward innovative ideas that can be replicated and scaled up. Green awards to recognise contributions of individuals and institutions at district, state, and national levels could be instituted.

It is hoped that India, in the interest of its people and mankind, would come up with a far more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0 at Baku. The seminal efforts of the Indian government combined with enthusiastic grassroots participation can have a transformative impact on the battle against global warming. We owe this to ourselves and the generations to follow.