Climate extremes breaking records across continents; global warming set to breach 1.5°C mark

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in its Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (Target years: 2023-2027), claims that there is a 66% chance that the annual average near-surface temperature will breach the 1.5°C limit for at least one year between 2023 and 2027.

This is attributed to the high levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and a particularly strong El Nino event. The WMO clarifies that this does not mean that we will permanently breach the 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement, but we will temporarily breach the mark with increasing frequency.

This scenario, although aided by El Nino for 2023-2027, must be viewed in comparison with the goal of the Paris Agreement and the history of warming since the Agreement. Article 2.1(a) of the Paris Agreement sets the goal as: ‘Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.’ In 2015, when this goal was set at the COP21 in Paris, the global average temperature was only less than 0.5°C above the pre-industrial average. By 2022, the global average surface temperature reached 1.13°C above the pre-industrial average. The chance of temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C mark in the next 5 years has steadily increased from near-zero in 2015 to 10% during 2017-2021, 50% during 2022-26, and 66% during 2023-27.

If this comes as a shock to some, it’s only because some believed in the recent hysteria over the 1.5°C campaign. The Paris Agreement itself was not fully committed to a 1.5°C scenario, as evident from the statement: ‘…pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.’ However, during the pandemic and in the runup to COP26 in Glasgow, the 1.5°C scenario gained unprecedented momentum.

It became the holy grail of global climate action. Countries and corporates rallied behind Net Zero, an idea that was embedded in Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement: ’…to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases…’. All that noise and hype around Net Zero helped create a false expectation that we are doing enough to ward off the 1.5°C warming scenario.

Now that we are on the brink of breaching the 1.5°C limit, should we look at it as an inevitable progression of global warming or a missed opportunity? On careful analysis of action required for the desired outcome, two things are clear: one, the 1.5°C goal is a difficult one to achieve and two, we did not even try.

Science has been very clear on what needs to be done, as stated in Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement: “In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2, Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century…

.” Later, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) put these actions more specifically as: ‘limiting warming to around 1.5°C (2.7°F) requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by 43% by 2030; at the same time, methane would also need to be reduced by about a third’. Global emissions may have entered the peak zone already, with total greenhouse gas emissions reaching a high of 56.4 Gt CO2e in 2019 and emissions in 2021 and 2022 being very close to but below this level. That means, the real task was to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030. Clearly, a very daunting task. So, we gave it a slip.

We did not embrace ‘43 by 30’ and instead rallied behind Net Zero by mid-century and decided to chase ‘carbon removal’ instead of focusing on emission reduction. The gap between action needed and action committed to as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement by member countries and the fact that we are into the eighth year of the Paris Agreement point to a missed opportunity. According to the World Resources Institute, the current NDC commitments will reduce global emissions by only 7% by 2030 – so little compared to the 43% reduction required. Even if NDCs are ramped up 6-fold, as required, in the 2025 revision, we will be out of time to achieve the 43% reduction. That practically seals the fate of the 1.5°C target.

July 2023 has already given us the hottest day and week in our recorded history. The European summer is set to be the hottest with temperatures pushing beyond 40oC in many countries. Climate extremes are breaking records across continents. That is what we are getting with 1.13oC warming. And we are staring at a near-certain breach of 1.5°C in the next 5 years.