Climate change threatens India’s agricultural sector, report finds

Climate change is impacting India’s agricultural sector which employs 40 per cent of its labour, according to a report collated by Climate Trends, a research-based consulting and capacity-building initiative that aims to bring greater focus on issues of environment, climate change and sustainable development.

Around 70 per cent of the rural population of India relies on agriculture for their livelihoods.

A study attributed 59,000 suicides in India over the last three decades to crop-damaging warmer temperatures during the growing season.

In a new analysis titled ‘Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in India’ Climate Trends compiles evidence to showcase the extent of India’s agricultural vulnerability amidst changing summer monsoon season, crucial to India’s highly dependent agrarian economy.

The paper citing scientific evidence and public data suggests that summer monsoon rainfall has declined by 6 per cent since the 1950s. In the central region of India, where about 60 per cent of agriculture is rainfed, summer monsoon rains have declined by 10 per cent. While the monsoon rains have weakened, the intensity of the rains has increased, triggering dangerous floods.

These changes have resulted in direct crop production impacts, along with food price inflation and export shocks.

“Agronomic studies have already established that the warmer climatic conditions will never favour agricultural productivity. In fact, further temperature rise is most likely to reduce traditional rainfed as well as irrigated cash crops like Jowar, Bajra, Pulses, Sugarcane, Onion, Maize, etc. Also, with rising temperatures on account of warming along with building El Nino may result in warm winters this season. This will again have a great impact on the wheat production in terms of quality as well as yield,” said Rahul Todmal, Assistant Professor of Geography, University of Pune.

“Agriculture is highly dependent on consistent climatic conditions, but increasing variability on account of global warming is having severe consequences. While Monsoon rains have reduced by 10 per cent over the long term and have become inconsistent, the rise in extreme events such as heat, drought and floods has added drastically to agricultural challenges. Rice and wheat crops, both accounting for around 85 per cent of total annual grain production, are highly sensitive to climate change impacts. 18 per cent of India’s GDP is agri-dependent and over 40 per cent of its labour workforce is employed in the sector. Any changes in these patterns affect the country’s economy and well-being at both the macro and micro level,” adds Aarti Khosla, Director, of Climate Trends.

On food inflation trends, the report said the cost of tomatoes domestically soared by more than 700 per cent, increased onion prices in August 2023 resulted in the government imposing a 40 per cent on onion exports, and food price inflation reached 11.51 per cent in July this year – the highest since January 2020.

“The y-o-y inflation rate has increased for vegetables (37.34per cent), pulses (13.3 per cent), grains (13 per cent), spices (21.6 per cent) and milk (8.3 per cent),” the Climate Trends report stated.

“India’s agricultural landscape, deeply intertwined with the ebb and flow of the monsoon season, faces an unprecedented challenge as climate change casts a long shadow over its fertile fields. The pivotal summer monsoon, the lifeblood of Indian agriculture, has been marred by a 6% decline in rainfall since the 1950s, with the Indo-Gangetic Plains and the Western Ghats bearing the brunt. As the monsoons weaken, their intensity grows, heralding perilous floods and wreaking havoc on the delicate balance of crops. With over 50 per cent of India’s crop cultivation dependent on rain, the vulnerability of its agricultural sector is stark.

Rising temperatures, exacerbated by human-induced climate change, have seen a 0.7°C increase since 1901, rendering the once

predictable monsoons increasingly erratic. Extreme weather events, such as the 2022 heatwave, now occur 30 times more likely due to climate change, impacting crops like wheat, maize, and soybeans,” added Prof Anjal Prakash, Clinical Associate Professor (Research) and Research Director, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business, IPCC Author.