Climate Change Threat Has Escalated for India, Says IMD Chief Amid 2024’s Record Heat
The threat of climate change is intensifying in India, said Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the head of India Meteorological Department (IMD), as 2024 concluded as the hottest year on record since 1901.
The warning comes as the weather department celebrates its 150th anniversary, marking a significant milestone in its history.
“The past year was particularly challenging for weather forecasting due to many extreme weather events and increased variability. Weather patterns are shifting due to climate change, with a rise in frequency of heavy rainfall events. Monsoon rains have increased in the western part of India, while the eastern region has seen a decrease, even though the total amount of monsoon rains have remained unchanged,” said the IMD Director-General.
India has recorded five of its warmest years in the last 15 years — 2024, 2016, 2009, 2010 and 2017 — accompanied by record-breaking heatwave spells and torrential rains. The warming in the last three months of 2024 — October to December — was unprecedented at 0.83℃.
WILL IMPROVE FORECAST ACCURACY BY 10-15%
In an exclusive interview with CNN-News18, Dr Mohapatra said the IMD is expanding its observational network to tackle the challenges posed by warming. “Climate change not only influences extreme weather, but also threatens predictability. If we can predict heavy rainfall three days in advance, climate change will reduce that to 1.5 days,” he remarked.
Over the last decade, the MeT has expanded its radar network from 15 in 2013 to 39 in 2024, covering 80 per cent of the country. It is currently in the process of issuing tenders for 54 more doppler weather radars to enhance the country-wide radar network to 126 under the Rs 2,000 crore Mission Mausam.
The ambitious programme also covers installation of 15 Wind Profilers and 25 micro-radiometers to provide hourly data on changing wind, temperature and humidity levels in the atmosphere. At present, the IMD relies on data collected from sensors released in balloons only twice a day. “We will go for the tendering process shortly,” said Dr Mohapatra. “If the current status of atmosphere, ocean and land surface processes can be mapped correctly, we can improve our forecast accuracy by at least 10-15 per cent.”
SOME HITS AND MISSES
Despite its state-of-the art infrastructure, IMD has struggled to keep up increased weather variability and missed the mark in some day-to-day forecasts. Nearly months’ worth of disastrous rain — 228 mm — fell on Delhi in just 12 hours on June 28. Discussing its hits and misses last year, the IMD chief said the seasonal monsoon forecast was largely accurate, and the forecast accuracy for heavy rainfall events in terms of detection was 83 per cent in 2024.
“But there are still about 15-20 per cent false alarms, and 17 per cent missing weather events, so there is still scope to improve heavy rainfall warnings,” he added. “Our cyclone forecast is second to none. The target for next five years is to predict more accurately and provide weather warnings at block and panchayat levels.”
Just last year, IMD got another boost with high-performance computing system Arka and Arunika worth Rs 850 crore provided to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) at Pune and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) to enhance weather forecasting.
The 150-year-old department has also embraced Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning to mine the treasure trove of weather data available since 1901. He added, “We run almost 10 forecasting models every day, seven from India, and 3-4 from other countries on bilateral arrangement. More than 10 weather models are being referred to every day. We have also set up an indigenous decision support system to comprehend these models and observations.”
NO EL NINO EXPECTED IN 2025 MONSOON SEASON
Another major challenge for IMD remains accurately predicting the southwest monsoon, which provides 75 per cent of India’s annual rainfall from June to September and is a lifeline to the agrarian economy.
Addressing concerns over the global ocean phenomenon El Niño disrupting the southwest monsoon this year, the IMD chief said, “No El Niño is expected in the 2025 monsoon season. We expect its counterpart La Niña to form during January and March, which will weaken thereafter. By the time the monsoon arrives, neutral conditions are likely to prevail, which is good for the monsoon. Unlike El Niño, the heatwaves are also less severe during La Nina years,” he added.