China’s wolf warriors rachet tensions over Arunachal Pradesh and Indo-Pacific
After delineating security under his de-facto chief of staff Cai Qi and national economy under new prime minister Li Qiang last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s wolf warriors are now at work with military muscle display in the Indo-Pacific and sharp tongue against India over its so-called claims over Arunachal Pradesh.
The three-day military display against Taiwan after President Tsai Ing met US House speaker Kevin McCarthy on April 5 in California was an open threat to the Indo-Pacific to stay away from Taipei or else. The message was that China is prepared for a military take-over of Taiwan, which it claims as its own, and could not care less about international laws or diplomacy. Simply put, President Xi has messaged his domestic audience that he will not compromise on what China defines as its core interests.
The rapidly escalating situation over Taiwan since former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei last August 2 is a red flag for Japan as any PLA intervention against the Island Republic will definitely drag in Tokyo into the conflict. While the national security paper of Japan defines China as a clear adversary, Japan under Fumio Kishida will have to shed its pacifist doctrine if it wants to take on the bully China. The visit of Japan’s top admiral to west Australian port, possibly the central hub for the AUKUS submarines, and the launch of US-Philippines largest ever joint military drills today shows that the QUAD partners are ready for the Beijing challenge.
While Chinese strong-arm tactics are at work in the Indo-Pacific with focus on Taiwan, it is quite clear that Beijing plans to use the boundary dispute with India as a lever to destabilize the Modi government and curb its participation in the QUAD. The April 2 renaming of 11 sundry geographical locations in Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as Zangnan, and the sharp tongue of a junior diplomat to Home Minister Amit Shah’s visit to Kibithoo, the first Indian village on the LAC, on Monday is an example of Chinese wolf warrior diplomacy. The Chinese diplomat called Shah visit as a violation of Chinese territorial integrity despite the fact that Arunachal Pradesh was never a part of Communist China. This would be akin to India claiming parts of Xinjiang and parts of Tibet on the basis of Mughal military expeditions in Sinkiang or conquest of Dogra generals of past of western Tibet around the holy Mansarovar lake.
The Chinese wolf warrior diplomacy may have had resonance with their Indian counterparts but not for Home Minister Amit Shah, who declared zero tolerance to any encroachment on the 3488 km long LAC from Kibithoo. Shah’s emphatic riposte came after Indian Chief of Defence Staff Gen Anil Chauhan reviewed the military preparedness of the Eastern Army Command in Kolkata and Bagdogra over the weekend. He also visited the Hashimara air base, which is the home base for IAF’s Rafale fighters. Add to this the visit of India’s commander-in-chief President Draupadi Murmu’s flying a Su-30 MKI from Tezpur airbase, key operational IAF’s base for eastern sector operations, and the big picture of India’s military infrastructure push in North-East becomes clear.
While India has noted Chinese aggressive statements over Arunachal Pradesh and rejected them, Beijing’s recent stance has pushed back normalization of bilateral relations proportionally and heightened military concerns. The Chinese rulers and the Indian military-civilian bureaucracy should keep in mind that neither Prime Minister Narendra Modi nor his party carry the weight of 1962 war legacy and are quite capable of defending Indian frontiers on ground. The Indian army operations on South Pangong Tso in August 2020 was just an example.