BJP divided over impact of PFI ban on Karnataka polls

A group of leaders within the Bharatiya Janata Party in Karnataka is questioning the party’s strategy to garner mileage in upcoming assembly elections by making the ban on the Popular Front of India (PFI) a poll issue.

A senior BJP leader and MLA said there is a concern within the party that the impact of the issues raised by the party is limited to coastal Karnataka, where it is already dominant.

“Whether it is the stand taken by the party regarding hijab, anti-conversion bill or even the ban on PFI… these issues gain traction mostly in coastal Karnataka. The question we raised is regarding the effort and time given to a stronghold, whereas more attention is needed in south Karnataka districts, where we still have a lot of ground to capture. So, if you ask me about the political gains we have made with the ban, I would say it is limited,” said the BJP leader, who didn’t want to be named.

The government’s decision not to seek a ban on the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) after a ban on its parent organisation — PFI — has fuelled speculations that the SDPI will be crucial for BJP’s plans for the upcoming assembly elections. In Karnataka, the PFI ban is another poll issue after a series of communal incidents in the state that has been used by the BJP to help split minority votes which the Congress banks on. The BJP leadership in the state believes that the divided opinions on response to the ban on PFI would lead to split in Muslim votes, making a dent on Congress’s poll gains.

The leader quoted above pointed out that he is sceptical of the impact communal politics can have on the voters of north Karnataka and in the southern districts.

In the 2018 assembly polls, out of the six seats in Uttara Kannada district, the BJP won four and took its tally to five when Shivaram Hebbar joined the party from the Congress following the political crisis a year later. In Udupi district, the BJP bagged all five seats, and in Dakshina Kannada, it won seven out of eight, leaving the Congress with just one.

However, in the 2013 assembly elections, the results were drastically different. The Congress won three seats in Udupi, seven in Dakshina Kannada, and three in Uttara Kannada. The Congress is hoping to improve its performance in the region in the upcoming elections, by taking back some of the seats lost during the Hindutva wave in 2018.

One of the biggest headaches for the Congress, which is trying to regain this region, has been SDPI, which has been taking over Congress’s Muslim vote bank in coastal Karnataka. While the SDPI didn’t win any assembly constituencies in the region, their vote share saw an increase. In the 2013 Karnataka assembly election, SDPI got a vote share of 3.2% and by the 2018 election, the vote share increased to 10.5%. SDPI also won six seats in Karnataka’s urban local body elections in December 2021.

Meanwhile, the SDPI has said that it will contest at least 100 seats in the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections. “We are into electoral politics and it (SDPI) is also a movement for Dalits, Adivasis, Muslims, Christians and others. We will continue on our path. In the coming elections, we will work to contest in at least 100 constituencies (out of 224 seats in the state),” Riyaz Kadambu, the SDPI state committee member, told HT.

The SDPI is yet to prove itself in the assembly elections but has garnered support in local body elections, where the Congress has wavered in consolidating its position in Muslim-dominated localities.

The SDPI stands to gain from taking on the BJP as it continues to attract more minority votes in the region by eating into what was earlier believed to be the support base of the Congress, people aware of the developments said.

Political analyst Prof Muzafar Assadi said the ban on PFI might unite the minority community. “The ban on PFI might strengthen the SDPI. I think now, it might be looking to contest up to 100 seats in the 2023 assembly elections. The minority community might believe that their voice is being suppressed and might reconsolidate. Of course, the Congress will be the biggest loser in this,” Prof Assadi said.

However, a senior Congress leader disagreed. According to him, the support from the Muslim parties in the country for the ban on PFI is an indication that the community doesn’t support communal politics. “This ban will result in people realising that bringing down the BJP and RSS from power is most important. People have realised that the BJP has been using these organisations to split Muslim votes. The community that is already frustrated by the government’s communal policies will support us in coastal regions in the upcoming elections. We are the solution,” the leader said.