Alarm as Putin orders troops to rebel regions

With Russia recognising two breakaway Ukrainian provinces as independent republics, and moving its troops into the Donbas region, the United States (US) and its allies have slammed Russian president Vladimir Putin for violating Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, rolled out the first set of sanctions, and pushed back on joint economic projects, with Germany halting the Nordstream-2 pipeline project.

The US and European nations were preparing to announce more sanctions later on Tuesday, but plan to tailor their responses to Russia’s future actions – and are carefully observing if Russian forces stay within the territory controlled by separatist governments in Ukraine, or move beyond it to areas controlled by Ukrainian government.

Moscow, on Tuesday, indicated that its recognition of the new republics extends to areas controlled by Ukrainian forces, triggering the possibility of a further escalation and prolonged conflict.

Russia’s move, following a speech by Putin where he accused the West of conspiring to weaken Russia and questioned Ukraine’s statehood, drew widespread condemnation. United Nations Secretary General (UNSG) Antonio Guterres said he was “greatly concerned” at Russia’s decisions related to “certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine”, termed it as a “violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine”, and reiterated the UN’s support for the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine “within its internationally recognised borders”.

Late on Monday night in New York, at Ukraine’s request, the UNSC also held an emergency meeting to discuss the developments.

In an address to his nation, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Ukraine of 2022 was different than the Ukraine of 2014 – when Russia occupied Crimea and first backed separatists in the Donbas regions as they set up separatist enclaves – and expressed his determination to fight for Ukrainians’ sovereignty, while pressing for a peaceful diplomatic solution.

Among the most significant outcomes of Russia’s decision was Germany’s move to halt the Nordstream-2 gas pipeline project, and pull back its certification, with chancellor Olaf Scholz saying the situation was now “fundamentally different”. The continuation of the pipeline project had caused a gulf in the transatlantic alliance, with political constituencies in the US strongly opposing it.

The developments since late Monday also led to a spike in energy prices, with crude oil reaching levels not seen since 2014. Brent crude closed at $100 a barrel.

The UK government on Tuesday imposed tough sanctions against five Russian banks and three super-rich oligarchs from the country over President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive action on the Ukraine border. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the House of Commons that this is the “first tranche” of measures.

In Washington, on Monday, US president Joe Biden first held consultations with his national security team, then Zelensky, and then Chancellor Scholz and France’s president, Emmanuel Macron. He then signed an executive order prohibiting “new investment, trade and financing by US persons to, from, or in” the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and providing authority to impose sanctions on any persons operating in the two regions.

The US has clarified that this is separate from, and in addition to, the “swift and severe” measures it had been preparing if Russia proceeded with an invasion. More sanction-related announcements, both from the US and European Union, were expected late on Tuesday.

While Russia’s move has vindicated the US assessment that Putin had been planning aggressive moves, it also sharpens a dilemma for the West for whether the deployment of Russian troops in Donbas constitutes an “invasion” and thus necessitates the full force of all planned sanctions, or whether it converts the de-facto situation of Russian presence and control of the region into a de jure recognition.

On Monday evening, a senior US administration official – while claiming that Russia’s action constituted a violation of international law and its own international commitments, terming Putin’s speech as an attempt to justify a war, and expressing US’s determination to support Ukraine – pointed out that Russia had occupied these regions since 2014. “It has been Russia’s position that there are not Russian forces present in this part of Donbas. The reality… has been quite different. There have been Russian forces present in these areas throughout. And so, we are going to be looking very closely at what they do over the coming hours and days, and our response will be measures according to their actions.”

On Tuesday, Moscow said that its recognition of the two provinces extended to areas under the control of Ukrainian forces. According to an AP news report, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia has recognised the independence of the rebel regions “in borders that existed when they proclaimed” their independence in 2014 — broad territories that extend far beyond the areas now under the rebel control and that include the major Black Sea port of Mariupol. The possibility of Russian escalation in areas beyond separatist-held territory is likely to trigger more sanctions from the US and West.

Experts believe an escalation is likely. Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a thinktank in Washington DC, tweeted, “Russia is not unilaterally giving away its main leverage over Ukraine, for nothing (plus getting sanctioned), or just introducing troops into occupied territories where it has already kept forces on rotation for 8 years. That’s not what this is about.” He added that if one looked at the evolution of the crisis, Putin’s grievances, and disposition of Russian forces, it suggested a “play for Ukraine, with maximalist aims”. “Recognition of the two provinces, according to Kofman, was just a “significant political step in that rapidly unfolding scheme”.