Where will you fly in 2025? More to Shanghai and less to New York

International flights into Shanghai, Beijing and Hong Kong are set to jump in 2025, almost completing the cities’ recoveries to pre-pandemic totals. It’s a different story in the rest of the world as the industry navigates cost-of-living crises, broken supply chains and regional conflicts.

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd.’s services into Shanghai, China’s financial heart, are set to surge 48% to more than 4,000 in the 12 months through November next year, according to airline schedules compiled by Cirium. Air China Ltd., China Southern Airlines Co. and Hainan Airlines Holding Co. are among others planning to operate hundreds more overseas flights into Beijing versus the previous 12 months, the data show.

With foreign visitor numbers to China still in the doldrums, Chinese carriers inevitably account for many of the additional international services. More Chinese citizens are venturing overseas and back following a post-Covid domestic travel boom.

Meanwhile, international air traffic to established hubs such as London, Dubai and Doha will falter or even reverse next year, the schedules indicate. In New York, the volume of incoming overseas flights will decline in the year through November, the Cirium data show. That would be the first decrease since the pandemic halted global travel in 2020.

The schedules reflect an aviation industry operating at different speeds and facing an array of challenges. Passenger demand next year will be strongest in the Asia-Pacific region, which emerged from Covid later than Europe and the US and is therefore coming off a lower base, according to the most recent outlook from the International Air Transport Association.

‘Fractured Market’

“It’s a very fractured market — but it’s still showing growth as far as the Chinese recovery is concerned,” said Subhas Menon, director general of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. “The fly in the ointment is really the supply chain issues affecting the industry.”

Flight network growth at many airlines, particularly those in the US, continues to be limited by Boeing Co.’s production woes and shortfalls in the supply of engines and other critical components in the wake of the pandemic. Airlines expect these problems to be a constraint beyond 2025.

Also in China’s favor is the decision by the US to ease its travel warning last month. The US travel advisory for China now matches the designation for countries such as France, Germany and India. China’s protracted rebound has made Shanghai Pudong the world’s fastest-growing airport, according to OAG data.

Asia dominates this month’s rankings of the world’s busiest overseas routes, too.

Pockets of weakness aside, a record 5.2 billion passengers will still take to the skies in 2025, according to IATA, pushing airline industry revenue past $1 trillion for the first time.

According to Subhas, many US carriers have little incentive to operate more international flights because profitability on domestic routes is so good. Airlines that plan to run fewer overseas flights to New York include Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd., British Airways and Deutsche Lufthansa AG, the data show.