Climate change altered 2024 monsoon: Study warns of increasing weather extremes
In a comprehensive study of the 2024 monsoon season in India, Climate Trends, a prominent weather and climate monitoring agency, has revealed the profound impacts of climate change on rainfall and temperature patterns across the nation.
The analysis points to the increasing extremity in weather events, reflecting the tangible effects of global climate change.
MAJOR DISCREPANCIES IN RAINFALL PATTERNS
The study, covering 729 districts, reveals a staggering diversity in rainfall patterns. Of these, 340 districts experienced normal rainfall.
However, there were significant deviations at both ends of the spectrum, with 158 districts witnessing excess rainfall and 48 districts facing large excess rainfall. On the other hand, 178 districts, including 11 with large deficits, suffered from inadequate rain.
Notably, the 2024 monsoon recorded the highest number of heavy rainfall events in the past five years, highlighting a worrying trend of intensifying weather events.
June 2024 saw the second-highest occurrences of very heavy rainfall events in the last five years. July followed this trend, reporting the second-highest number of extremely heavy rainfall events.
In August, 753 stations recorded very heavy rainfall—the highest since 2020. September further marked a new record, with 525 stations logging significant rainfalls.
THE ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Traditionally, monsoon dynamics have been understood as a result of the heat capacity differences between land and the upper ocean. This difference causes a seasonal reversal of winds, primarily because land experiences much greater temperature changes compared to the ocean.
However, with global temperatures constantly rising, monsoon patterns have seen significant shifts, becoming particularly evident in the past decade.
Dr. K J Ramesh, former Director General of the India Meteorological Department, notes that in recent years, weather systems have traveled through Central India instead of their usual northward path.
This shift is attributed to global warming and phenomena like El Niño, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). High-intensity, short-duration rainfall events are increasingly driven by climate change, while the longevity of monsoon systems is extended due to back-to-back systems saturating soil moisture.
Additionally, Dr. Akshay Deoras, a research scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, emphasizes the increasing variability of monsoons as the planet warms. He notes that when conditions are favorable for rain, the probability of intense rainfall events is now higher than it was several years ago. This leads to longer dry spells and more intense periods of rainfall, with significant variations observed across different districts.
Aarti Khosla, Founder & Director of Climate Trends, stresses the importance of tracking spatial rainfall distribution across the country. She emphasizes that the rise in extreme weather events—whether drought in 2023 or above-normal rains in 2024—is driven by persistently rising average temperatures. Khosla calls for a comprehensive adaptation strategy to safeguard lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems from the overlapping impacts of climate change on India’s diverse geography.
UNPREDICTABLE MONSOON AND ITS SIDE EFFECTS
The summer monsoon, once a reliable and predictable phenomenon, is undergoing unsettling transformations due to climate change. Historically, the Indian monsoon season, spanning June to September (JJAS), has been vital for agriculture, water supply, and maintaining ecological balance.
However, recent studies indicate these patterns are becoming increasingly erratic, creating new challenges for millions who depend on their consistency.
Aarti Khosla, Founder & Director of Climate Trends, stresses the importance of tracking spatial rainfall distribution across the country. She emphasises that the rise in extreme weather events — whether drought in 2023 or above-normal rains in 2024 — is driven by persistently rising average temperatures. Khosla calls for a comprehensive adaptation strategy to safeguard lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems from the overlapping impacts of climate change on India’s diverse geography.
Emerging research highlights a trend towards extended summer-like conditions during monsoon months, fundamentally altering traditional climatic norms.
This has led to an alarming shift where monsoons are now alternately characterised by inconsistent and intense patterns. Regions are experiencing more pronounced extremes—dry years are becoming drier, and wet years are becoming wetter—further intensifying weather volatility.