2025 Oscar Predictions – Over to You, Film Festivals

It’s the end of July. Our film festival season is nearly upon us. It’s still hard to predict this year’s race, as we have minimal intel on whether the upcoming films will be good or not.

Because there are ten slots for Best Picture and not that many movies being released in theaters, it’s probably easier than it might have been back in the glory days. While cineastes are fine with an Oscar race that is niche and small, I know there is always the hope it will expand.

In general, the atmosphere right now is tense. A former president just survived an assassination, and the current president is being pushed out by party leaders, many of whom are Hollywood luminaries, like Rob Reiner, George Clooney, Jeffrey Katzenberg, all of whom have given millions to the Democrats.

To them, they can’t. understand why they can recast the part of President of the United States. Well, democracy got in the way.

It is one of the most exciting presidential races, and stories, in American history, which makes it a little bit harder to focus on movies or anything involving storytelling. How can you get better than real life right now? You can’t. This is especially true now that the storytellers in Hollywood are being forced to tell stories a certain way.

People always say, “Don’t talk about politics, talk about movies,” but that’s not possible right now if you are an intelligent person. Movies — Hollywood especially — are political. At the moment, they’re only being told from one side of the aisle, but that is going to change as the pendulum swings.

One of the reasons I write about politics (on Substack) is that it’s an exciting area of American life and one that isn’t as heavily thought-policed as entertainment news has become. There is a lot happening in entertainment but it is not anything most people feel like talking about. They don’t want to lose their jobs or be attacked or betray their tribes, so they keep quiet. But everything unsaid right now in Hollywood would make for great storytelling, should anyone out there ever grow a pair.

This is a good time to remember the pendulum swing. The book Pendulum: How Past Generations Shape our Present and Predict Our Future puts us at the exact moment in time when “collectivism” has become toxic. We’ve taken things too far and now the pendulum is hissing and spitting as it starts to swing. The next phase is “individualism,” coming in the next ten years.

They have this chart in their book about why the pendulum swings. The dark side of “collectivism” is moral judgments on others. As you can see by the chart below:

These guys accurately predicted the height of our “witch hunt” phase in 2023, and they predicted it way back in 2011.

I can feel us heading into the I’m not O.K., You’re Not O.K.” phase. That means the moral judgment loosens up, and sooner or later, the pattern begins anew as we start building up leaders or heroes. When that phase goes sour, the downside is apathy, alienation, etc. After that we start moving toward “collectivism” again.

You might not like that I write about “politics,” but who else covering the Oscars will talk to you about the pendulum theory?

Onward to predictions:

Here is what my Best Picture predictions looked like last year around this time:

Best Picture

• Oppenheimer
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• The Killer
• The Holdovers
• Past Lives
• Barbie
• Next Goal Wins
• Maestro
• Napoleon
• Poor Things

Alts:
Ferrari
Priscilla
Saltburn
Air
The Zone of Interest

8/10 is not bad. I was missing Anatomy of a Fall and American Fiction.

I already had Oppie at number one, which is unusual. The frontrunner named early doesn’t usually run the gauntlet and remain on top. This time, it was leagues beyond anything else, and it was also the time to finally award Christopher Nolan for his body of work.

In general, I tend to predict movies based on what the fllm is about, who stars in it, what studio is releasing it and who directed it. We have several untested directors releasing films this year and we have no idea if they can direct. Most of the time, who directed the movie gives you an idea where your expectation level should be.

This year, the hot titles so far would be:

Sing Sing – raves out of TIFF and screenings
Dune Part II – huge step up from first one
Anora – the Palme d’or winner in Cannes
Inside Out 2 – massive box office blowout and better than the original (come on Disney mafia, show us the full strength of your battle stations)
Emilia Perez – also a big splash from Cannes

The films that seem like hot titles based on their trailers:

Conclave – HOLY SHIT that trailer
Joker: Folie a Deuz – sure to stir controversy
Gladiator II – no downside if you ignore the too-insulated critics.
Here – looks interesting, maybe meaningful in its return to form.
Wicked – looks fun and might make money, plus women-led

Hot films whose trailer has not yet been seen:

Blitz – Steve McQueen is always interesting
Hard Truths – Old Academy loved Mike Leigh, maybe they still do.
The Nickel Boys — looks to be hard-hitting and important.
The Piano Lesson – Looks promising but is directed by Denzel Washington’s son … maybe? He made one short previously.
A Real Pain — holocaust themed but directed by Jesse Eisenberg … maybe? Einsenberg’s debut, I believe.

But that’s just a preliminary list. It is by no means complete.

Okay, with that out of the way, let’s get to this year’s predictions.

Best Picture

Conclave
Gladiator II
Joker: Folie a Deux
Dune: Part Two
Anora
Sing Sing
Emilia Perez
Blitz
Nickel Boys
Wicked
Alts: Inside Out 2, A Real Pain, The Secret of the Sacred Fig, Hard Truths, Here

Best Director

Edward Berger, Conclave
Todd Phillips, Folie a Deux
Sean Baker, Anora
Denis Villenueve, Dune 2
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Best Actress

Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie a Deux
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Mikey Madison, Anora
June Squibb, Thelma

Best Actor

Coleman Domingo, SIng Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux
Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys

Supporting Actress

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

Supporting Actor

Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
John Lithgow, Conclave
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Adapted Screenplay

Conclave
Nickel Boys
Joker Folie a Deux
Nightbitch
Dune Part Two

Original Screenplay

Anora
Blitz
Hard Truths
Emilia Perez
A Real Pain