Hindi heartland, south, Bengal may power BJP’s ‘400 paar’ triumph: Key takeaways from exit polls

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will retain power with a thumping majority in the Lok Sabha, exit polls predicted on Saturday.

While most pollsters projected that the ruling alliance might score its highest-ever tally in national elections, some claimed it may achieve its ambitious ‘400 paar’ dream.

Narendra Modi, who will likely equal Jawaharlal Nehru’s record of becoming the prime minister of the country thrice in a row, had set a steep target of 370 seats for the BJP and 400 seats for the alliance. No other party barring the Congress ever won 400 seats in general elections.

What the exit polls predicted

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicted the ruling NDA may cross the 400-mark. The agency said the BJP-led alliance may win 361-401 seats. The Opposition’s INDIA bloc is likely to win 131-166 seats, it added.

India TV-CNX exit polls also predicted similar figures for the BJP — between 371 and 401 seats. The INDIA bloc may win between 109 and 139 seats.

The Republic TV-P Marq said the NDA will win 359 seats and the INDIA bloc will bag 154 seats. The Republic TV-Matrize poll gave 353-368 seats to the NDA and 118-133 seats to the opposition. The Jan Ki Baat poll gave 362-392 seats to the ruling NDA and 141-161 to the Opposition’s alliance.

According to exit polls, the BJP is expected to improve its seats tally in southern states.

In Telangana, the Congress and the BJP are neck and neck. According to exit poll results telecast by TV9 Bharatvarash, BJP-led NDA is poised to win seven of the 17 Lok Sabha seats; the INDIA bloc will win eight seats.

India TV’s exit poll predicted the BJP-led NDA will get 8-10 seats and the INDIA bloc 6-8 seats.

Per News18, the BJP is expected to win 7-10 seats in Telangana, the INDIA bloc 5-8 seats and the BRS 2-5 seats.

In 2019, the BJP had won only four seats in the state.

In Tamil Nadu, however, DMK-led INDIA bloc will likely win most of the state’s 39 seats. According to the Axis-My India exit poll, the BJP-led NDA is expected to win 2-4 seats in the state. The INDIA bloc is set to win 33-37 seats.

In Kerala, Congress-led UDF is expected to win 17-18 seats, according to Axis My India. The exit poll predicted that NDA will likely get its highest-ever vote share of around 27 percent. The alliance is expected to win a few seats in the state as well.

The News 18 exit poll predicted 1-3 seats for NDA in Kerala. It said UDF is expected to win 15-18 seats and CPM-led LDF 2-5 seats.

The Times Now-ETG predicted one seat for the BJP in Kerala. It said Congress-led UDF and CPI(M)-led LDF are expected to win 14-15 and four seats respectively.

Most of the exit polls have predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-led alliance in Karnataka. Per the polls, the alliance is expected to win over 20 seats.

In total, per ABP-Cvoter, the NDA will double its 2019 figure of 32 seats. The coalition could win 55 to 64 constituencies in the five southern states – Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana. News18 gave the NDA 51 to 64 seats in the region, while Axis My India gave it 59 to 67.

In Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 members to the lower house of Parliament, the NDA is projected to win 69 to 74 seats, while the INDIA bloc is expected to secure 6 to 11 seats, according to Republic Bharat-Matrize. It predicted that Mayawati’s BSP, which won 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, won’t be able to open its account.

Meanwhile, NDTV-Jan Ki Baat has predicted that the BJP-led NDA has chances of winning between 68 to 74 seats in Uttar Pradesh. Most of the exit polls showed the BJP improving its 2019 tally.

In Madhya Pradesh, per the India Today-Axis My India poll and India TV, NDA is set to win 28-29 seats. Times Now ETG has predicted a clean sweep for the ruling alliance.

In Jharkhand, the India Today-Axis My India poll survey predicted the victory of the NDA in 8-10 seats. Times Now-ETG has given 13 of the state’s 14 seats to the alliance.

In West Bengal and Odisha, most exit polls predicted that the BJP will upset Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress and Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal.

NDTV-Jan Ki Baat exit poll has predicted between 21 and 26 seats for the saffron party and 16-18 for the Trinamool Congress.

India News-D-Dynamics also gave 21 seats to the BJP and 19 to the Trinamool Congress, while Republic Bharat-Matrize predicted between 21 and 25 seats for the BJP. It predicted between 16 and 20 seats for Mamata Banerjee’s party in the state.

In Odisha, most exit polls predicted that the BJP will register significant gains.

BJP to maintain lead in Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh

The BJP will likely emerge as the single-largest party in Haryana, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

Axis My India has predicted 6-9 seats for the BJP-led NDA and 2-4 seats for the INDIA bloc in Haryana. Times Now-ETG has predicted 7 seats for the BJP-led NDA and three seats for the INDIA bloc. According to the ‘Today’s Chanakya’ exit poll telecast News 24, NDA is expected to win six seats.

In Uttarakhand, both Times Now-ETG and News 24-‘Today’s Chanakya’ exit polls predicted that the BJP will win all five seats.

Axis My India predicted that the BJP will win all four seats in Himachal Pradesh. According to India TV exit polls, NDA is expected to win 3-4 seats in the state. The Times Now-ETG exit poll has given three seats to the BJP and one seat to the INDIA bloc.

Gujarat

The BJP is expected to win all 26 seats in its bastion, Gujarat. According to exit poll figures by Times Now-ETG, NDA is set to sweep all 26 seats. India TV’s exit poll also predicted that the Congress-led INDIA bloc won’t even open its account in the coastal state.

The Congress is contesting the Lok Sabha polls in Gujarat in alliance with the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party.