Action against errant Maldives ministers after Mohammed Muizzu’s return from China?

Although India conveyed a verbal demarche to Maldives envoy Ibrahim Shaheeb on Monday, Male will not take any further action on the suspended three junior ministers till President Mohammed Muizzu returns from his visit to Beijing tomorrow.

While New Delhi is livid over derogatory and uncalled for comments on Prime Minister Narendra Modi by the three junior ministers, many on Raisina Hill believe that the ministers had sanction from the President to take on India before he embarked on a fundraising trip to China. Given the Xi Jinping regime’s strategic interest in setting up bases in the Indian Ocean like Gwadar in Pakistan and Hambantota in Sri Lanka, it is understood that Beijing will provide aid on interest through the Chinese Exim Bank to Male to build infrastructure in the island nation.

Incidentally, China had also asked permission from President Muizzu to allow the surveillance vessel Hong Yang 3 to conduct deep sea exploration off the coast of Maldives between January and May 2024. The permission to that vessel has not been granted till now.

Given the politics that Muizzu is playing against India, Male is expected to further harden its stance till the Majlis election in April 2024. President Muizzu’s anti-India stance is quite evident as he made Turkey the first port of call after he was sworn in. He then secured a USD 200 million loan from UAE-Saudi Arabia during his visit to COP28 in Dubai in December. And now he has made a trip to Beijing much to the chagrin of India.

Winning the Maldives election on the “Out India” campaign, Muizzu wants India to take back the unarmed IAF and Indian Navy crew for flying two ALH helicopters and one offshore patrol vessel and replace them with civilian crew. Even though there is not a single Indian trooper with arms deployed in the Maldives, Muizzu has tried to convey as if the previous Ibrahim Solih government had given permission to New Delhi to deploy troops in the island nation.

While New Delhi has made it clear that the onus of repairing bilateral ties damaged by uncalled for remarks by junior ministers lies on Male, it is quite evident to India that Muizzu will play the anti-India card to get financial support from adversaries of New Delhi. Last time Sri Lanka played this game and went down the economic drain.