What Karnataka poll result means for Modi, BSY, Siddaramaiah, Kharge, Deve Gowda

The Congress’s campaign in Karnataka had many faces — Siddaramaiah, D K Shivakumar, Mallikarjun Kharge, even Rahul Gandhi. In contrast, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s had only one — Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The party’s humbling defeat on Saturday is a clear indication that there are limits to Modi’s ability to turn things around, time and again, for the party. As Modi criss-crossed the state, the BJP attempted to turn the election around on his personal appeal, with BJP president JP Nadda even calling on voters to ensure that the connection between the state and the affection of the Prime Minister endured.

The last time Modi campaigned as hard and as intensively as he did in Karnataka, and lost, was in West Bengal in 2021. Like that loss, the Karnataka one too is unlikely to damage him or his appeal in a significant manner — voices are already being heard on how Parliamentary elections are different, and how poorly the BJP would have done had the state leadership run the campaign — but it is a reminder that even for Narendra Modi, the non-Hindi speaking parts of the country remain a challenge, especially in local contests against strong local leadership.

Siddaramaiah

Perhaps the biggest undisputed winner on counting day is the old Karnataka warhorse Siddaramaiah. His long career (he is now 76) has seen many highs, but most have come with caveats. His crowning moment before this victory was the Congress’s triumph in 2013, when it won 122 seats in the assembly, but the caveat was that the BJP’s votes were split by an angry B S Yediyurappa.

In 2018, he had to stomach H D Kumaraswamy of the JD(S) becoming CM of a joint JD(S)-Congress coalition, despite his party having less than half the number of seats of the Congress; in 2005, Siddaramiah, once widely seen as HD Deve Gowda’s protege, walked out of the JD(S) over differences with Kumaraswamy. Since 2018, though, Siddaramaiah, has emerged stronger, with his seniority, stature, and appeal to backward classes making him the biggest mass leader in the state. He has also worked hard to rebuild the Ahinda coalition — a grouping of Muslims, backward classes and Dalits- and, over the past few months, overseen a campaign that has seen the Muslims and communities coalesce around the Congress. His presence blunted the BJP’s attempt to turn this into a national-presidential style election centred around Modi.

B S Yediyurappa

The last three years have been tumultuous for former chief minister BS Yediyurappa. But even in a thumping loss for his party, Yediyurappa may have cemented his position as the BJP’s only mass leader in the state. Indeed, the BJP’s central leadership would appear to have forgotten, or at the least taken for granted, the reason why the party managed to establish a beachhead in the South in Karnataka — the presence of Yediyurappa, the tallest leader of the state’s most dominant community, the Lingayats, but also an old-style politician whose appeal cuts across caste and community barriers. In 2021, Yediyurappa controversially stepped aside (or was made to step aside) for BS Bommai , and since then, the party has lurched from one damaging controversy to the other. The BJP attempted a reboot ahead of the elections, with Modi reaching out to the former Chief Minister, but the damage was done. Yediyurappa did campaign for the party (and perhaps ensured former Chief Minister turned rebel Jagdish Shettar’s defeat), but it was clear his heart wasn’t in it.

Mallikarjun Kharge

Mallikarjun Kharge, 80, took over as Congress president in October 2022 in a time of tumult. There were many that questioned his authority, called him a rubber stamp, and pointed to his age, suggesting that he was perhaps past his best-by date. Two months later, he led the Congress into the first assembly election cycle under him, wresting Himachal Pradesh from the BJP, but being comprehensively defeated in BJP stronghold Gujarat. Karnataka , his home state, was to be the big test of his mettle. Kharge campaigned across the state, reiterating the Congress promises, spoke in his native Kannada, managed the simmering tension between Chief Ministerial probables DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah, even directly attacked Modi, a strategy that usually fails. His tone and tenor made it clear that if Modi was the son of the soil in Gujarat, he, a Dalit, was the “bhumiputra” from Karnataka. In the end, as he faced the cameras on Friday after the party’s resounding win, Kharge has cemented his standing, in the state, and in his own party.

HD Deve Gowda

For former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda, 89, Saturday’s results come as a devastating blow and perhaps indicate the growing irrelevance of the political party he has nurtured since 1999, helping it punch above its weight in Karnataka politics. For two decades, Deve Gowda has seen his son HD Kumaraswamy appointed Chief Minister twice in the past two decades, leveraging the JD(S)’ numbers in a hung assembly. This time too, party and some analysts toted out the old line about being kingmaker, but it was clear voters had enough of kingmakers and preferred kings instead. The party has lost ground everywhere, including in its stronghold , southern Karnataka. Worse, Nikhil Kumaraswamy, Deve Gowda’s grandson lost from Ramnagaram, the family borough. Gowda called this his last election in an emotional appeal for votes.The voters appear to have made sure it is just that.