Is an Arctic ‘Cold War’ coming? How climate change and the war in Ukraine are driving tensions

On medieval European maps, the Arctic was often simply labeled Oceanus innavigabilis — unnavigable ocean — and regarded by scholars as a dark and unforgiving region, home to fearsome mythological creatures and best left alone.

Today, those who live south of the Arctic’s climes have a slightly better idea of what’s there, but the region is still often overlooked in discussions of global politics and economics.

But these days, the Artic is getting a lot harder to ignore — and not only because its waters are getting increasingly navigabilis — navigable — for much of the year. Pick a pressing geopolitical issue — from the impact of climate change, to tensions between Russia and the West, to the tenuous state of global trade — and chances are it’s playing out in dramatic fashion on the top of the world.

The war in Ukraine has raised the geopolitical stakes in the Arctic, as it’s the only place on the planet where the United States and Russia are close neighbors. Diplomatic engagement between Russia and the West over Arctic governance has broken down, military assets in the region are growing, and disruptions to the global energy market have highlighted the emerging role of Arctic shipping, which has only become possible in recent years thanks to melting sea ice.

Meanwhile, the recent discovery of a massive deposit of rare earth metals in Arctic Sweden has provided another window onto the region’s future — one involving the region’s vast natural resources. The Arctic has long been both a major source of fossil fuels and the region where the environmental impact of those fuels is most evident. But it’s also likely to be a major source of the materials needed for the world’s “green transition” — and the competition for these resources is heating up.

Given the potential economic benefits of Arctic exploration, it’s little surprise that nations far from the Arctic — notably China — are staking their own claims in the region.

As Sherri Goodman, a former U.S. deputy undersecretary of Defense for environmental security, told Grid, “What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic.”