‘Flights over India may get 200% bumpier due to climate change’
A study conducted by academics at the UK’s University of Reading revealed clear air turbulence (CAT) incidents over north Indian airspace are expected to grow more than double after 2050 as a result of climate change.
CAT is the least predicted type of turbulence since it only happens at very high altitudes in clear or cloudless air. One of the experts, Prof. Paul Williams, told Tomes of India (TOI) that the expected increases are most pronounced in the northern half of India and are particularly pronounced during the pre-monsoon season, which lasts from March to May. By the years 2050 to 2080, Prof. Williams predicts that there will be 100–200% more clear air turbulence than there is today.
To examine the potential effects of climate change on the global CAT by 2050–2080, researchers conducted simulations of climate models. Williams, a professor of atmospheric science in the department of meteorology at Reading University was quoted by TOI as saying, “We found that there will be significant increases in clear air turbulence over India within the next few decades.”
“Of all the different forms of turbulence, it is CAT that is particularly hazardous to aircraft because it’s invisible to both radar and satellite and can’t be seen by pilots from the cockpit either,” he added.
Especially when the wind shear is high, atmospheric instability, particularly in the jet stream, is what leads to CAT. Jet streams are strong wind bands that are quite narrow. “Climate change is strengthening the wind shear. We know that the jet stream over the North Atlantic Ocean, for example, is already 15% more sheared than when satellites began observing it in the late 1970s. And our studies have used climate models to show that this effect will increase the amount of severe CAT by hundreds of percent in the next few decades,” as reported by TOI.
Currently, aircraft radar can spot thunderstorm clouds, which are a major cause of turbulence in India. According to the TOI report, the effect of climate change on this type of turbulence is not discussed in the study. NGO Safety Matters Foundation head Capt. Amit Singh stated: “In India, CAT is mostly encountered in the northern parts where most of the jet stream is prevalent. The last encountered CAT-related incident was Air India-462.” He was referring to flight AI-462, which took off from Amritsar on April 19, 2018, and suffered three injuries when severe turbulence struck it unexpectedly between 16,000 and 19,000 feet.
As per the news report, nearly 20 people have been injured by turbulence in India over the previous two years in two different occurrences (June 2021 and May 2022). In the incident from the previous year, a flyer eventually passed away from spinal injuries. Both events happened above north India during turbulence brought on by thunderstorm clouds.