‘Modi wave’ takes Gujarat, may edge Cong in Himachal; AAP a distant 3rd: Exit polls
The Bharatiya Janata Party will retain Gujarat for a seventh consecutive term and will win an unprecedented second term in Himachal Pradesh, according to exit poll data released Monday evening.
The Congress must settle for a distant second in both elections and Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party – seen by some as a serious challenger to the BJP – has flopped.
Exit poll data for the Delhi civic election has also been released and there is better news for the AAP; Kejriwal’s outfit is expected to win comfortably. The BJP – which won in 2017 – is second and the Congress is almost eliminated.
Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong.
Gujarat has 182 seats and the majority mark is set at 92. There are 68 seats in Himachal and the majority mark is 35. There are 250 seats in Delhi.
Gujarat exit polls
The Republic-P Marq survey has given the BJP between 128 and 148 seats, the Congress between 30 and 42, and just two to 10 seats to the AAP.
TV9 Bharatvarsh gives the BJP a similar score – 125 to 130 seats and a few more seats to the Congress – 40-50. The AAP is given between three and five.
India Today-Axis My India expects a strong BJP win, with the party picking up between 129 and 151 seats. The Congress, it says, will get between 16 and 30.
This survey also gives the AAP the most hope – with nine to 21 seats expected.
News X-Jan Ki Baat also gives the BJP an emphatic win, but the predicted spread is wider than the other polls, except for India Today. The BJP is expected to get between 117 and 140, the Congress 34 to 51 and the AAP six to 13 seats.
ABP News-C Voter follows Republic closely, with 128-140 seats for the BJP, 31-43 for the Congress and three to 11 for the AAP.
TV9-Gujarati gives the BJP a comfortable 125-130 seats and a surprisingly high 40-50 seats for the Congress. The AAP is given between three and five seats.
Times Now Navbharat ETG gives the BJP 139 seats, the Congress 30 and the AAP 11. News24-Today’s Chanakya gives the BJP a resounding win with 150 seats; the Congress can expect an embarrassing 19 and the AAP just 11.
Himachal Pradesh exit polls
The big story from Himachal are the results of the News24 exit poll, which leaves the BJP and Congress tied at 33 seats. Two are expected to fall to other parties or independents, meaning they could emerge as potential kingmakers.
India Today gives the Congress an edge, with 30-40 seats to the BJP’s 24-34.
ABP News goes the other way, giving the BJP 33-41 seats and the Congress 24-32. Republic also leans towards the BJP – 34 to 39 – and gives the Congress 20-33. Times Now gives 34-42 for the ruling party and 24-32 for the Congress.
News X gives the BJP the edge too – 32-40 seats to the Congress’ 27-34.
TV9 joins News24 in predicting a hung Assembly, with 33 for the BJP and 31 for the Congress. Four seats are expected to go smaller parties or independents.
With the exception of Times Now, none of these polls give the AAP even a single seat; Times Now gives Kejriwal’s outfit a solitary win.
Delhi MCD exit polls
In better news for Kejriwal, his AAP is expected to secure control of the national capital’s civic body, which has been with the BJP since 2012.
India Today gives the AAP between 149 and 171 seats, News X gives it 159-175 seats, Times Now 146-156 and Zee News-BARC 134-146.
The BJP – expected to mount a strong defence of its 2017 win – has fared poorly, pollsters report. India Today gives prime minister Narendra Modi’s party 69-91 seats, News X 70-92, Times Now 84-94 and Zee News 82-94.
The Congress has been routed, exit polls said, with only Times Now and Zee News giving it a double-figure score – six to 10 and eight to 14, respectively.
Counting of votes for Gujarat and Himachal will be on December 8. Delhi votes will be counted December 7.