Exit Polls: BJP set to retain UP, AAP a shock Punjab winner, tight race in Goa

The BJP is set to retain power in Uttar Pradesh and, in a big surprise, the Aam Aadmi Party is set to form the government in Punjab, according to exit polls released Monday after Assembly elections in five states.

Goa, Uttarakhand, and Manipur joined UP and Punjab in holding elections over the past two months. The BJP is fighting to retain four states, with the Congress looking to hold on to Punjab.

Full Coverage: 2022 Assembly Elections Exit Poll Results

1. Republic P-Marq, India Today-Axis My India, and Times Now-Veto all give the BJP a thumping win in Uttar Pradesh, with the Yogi Adityanath government set to return. Republic and Times Now give the ruling party 240 and 225 seats, respectively, in the 413-member Assembly, while India Today gives them between 288 and 326.

2. Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party will be the main opposition. Times Now gives them 151 seats and Republic 140, with India Today predicting between 71 and 101. The Congress is a distant third in all three exit polls, with Mayawati’s BSP outperforming them.

3. In Punjab (and in perhaps the biggest shock of these elections), Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party is set to spring a massive surprise and form the government, taking advantage of a feud within the ruling Congress that drove out former chief minister Amarinder Singh. The Akalis and the Congress are neck-and-neck for the post of main opposition, with the BJP (which had allied with Amarinder Singh’s Punjab Lok Congress, a distant third).

Punjab 2022 Assembly Election Exit Poll: Arvind Kejriwal and Aam Aadmi Party expected to win big
4. India Today-Axis My India and News24-Today’s Chanakya both give AAP over 75 seats in the 117-member Punjab Assembly; News 24 predicts a whopping 89-111 seats for Kejriwal. ABP News-CVoter gives AAP between 51 and 61 seats, while Republic P-Marq gives it 62-70 seats. Times Now-Veto gives it 70 seats.

5. The Congress’ best predicted result is between 21 and 31 seats (Republic P-Marq) and 19-31 (India Today-Axis My India), with its worst being News24-Today’s Chanakya’s estimate of 3-17 seats. The Akalis don’t fare any better – News24-Today’s Chanakya gives them between 1 and 11 seats and ABP News-CVoter a best of 20-26 seats. The BJP, in each case, is routed.

6. There is better news for the BJP in Uttarakhand, with India Today-Axis My India, News24-Today’s Chanakya and Times Now-Veto all giving it a win over the Congress. India Today-Axis My India gives it 36-46 seats, News24-Today’s Chanakya 43 and Times Now-Veto 37.

7. However, ABP News-CVoter and Republic P-Marq are leaning the other way, with the former giving the Congress 32-38 seats in the 70-member Assembly and the latter 33-38. The AAP is not likely to repeat its Punjab heroics, with a best predicted return of 3 by Republic.

8. In Goa, both India Today-Axis My India and Republic P-Marq predict a tight race between the ruling BJP and the Congress, with neither expected to win a majority outright. According to the former, the BJP will win 14-18 seats and the Congress 15-20. Republic says BJP and the Congress will win 13-17 seats each. Times Now-Veto gives the BJP 14 and the Congress 16. The majority mark in the 40-member assembly is 21, meaning it will likely be a hung house.

10. In Manipur, the Republic P-Marq exit poll gives the ruling BJP and its allies an easy win with 27-31 of 60 seats. While this is may be short of the majority of 31, the opposition MPSA is expected to win only 11-17 seats and the NPP 6-10, giving the ruling party plenty of wriggle room to form post-poll deals.