US to raise Ukraine issue during Quad meet

While core focus for the US during the Quad ministerial meeting in Australia this week will be to showcase its commitment to the Indo-Pacific, secretary of state Antony Blinken will also discuss the crisis in Ukraine with his Quad counterparts, “given the seriousness of the issue and the threat it poses to the rules-based global order”, according to US officials.

The meeting between foreign ministers of Australia, India, Japan and the US will be held in Melbourne from February 10-11.

Indian strategic experts have said that while it would be natural for the US to raise the Ukraine issue bilaterally, any effort to include it in the formal Quad agenda would be surprising.

Last week, at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), in a carefully constructed statement aimed at balancing ties with both Washington and Moscow, New Delhi spoke of the need for diplomacy and immediate de-escalation of tensions, and peaceful resolution of the situation to ensure long-term peace and stability in the region and beyond.

When asked whether the administration had considered a change in Blinken’s travel schedule due to the situation in Ukraine, state department spokesperson Ned Price, at a press briefing on Monday, told reporters, “He, I am sure, will be focused to a large degree on this (Ukraine) challenge even when he is in the Indo-Pacific. It will certainly come up with counterparts in the Quad and elsewhere.”

In a response to a question on the recent Russia-China summit, Price once again referred to US consultations with allies and partners. “As Russia and China talk about a singular partnership, we are focused with our 29 Nato allies, we are working with the EU, we are working with our allies in the Indo-Pacific and partners across the world to not only incentivise and work towards a diplomatic resolution, but also to be in a position to respond decisively if Russia does chose the path of aggression.”

The core message of Blinken’s visit was that in an era of “intense competition, changing strategic landscapes, economic coercion, and of course, this very difficult global pandemic”, there was no greater global partnership than what the US was trying to attempt through Quad, assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific Affair Daniel J Kritenbrink said last week.

The message comes at a time when a set of analysts have suggested that the American focus on the European theatre is distracting the US from the Indo-Pacific theatre and the China challenge.

But when asked specifically if a Quad joint statement on Ukraine could be expected, Kritenbrink said, “As leaders of the world’s key democracies, I think it will be natural for them to address all of the important issues of the day, and I am sure Ukraine will be one of them, given the seriousness of the issue and the threat it poses to the rules-based global order.

“As to whether this trip says anything about Ukraine, I think the way I would respond to the question is to simply say that the US is demonstrating how vitally important the Indo-Pacific is to our peace, prosperity and security.”

While the Quad has essentially focused on the vision of the four democracies in creating a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific and specific collaborations in the area of climate, vaccines, emerging technologies and infrastructure, it has also weighed in on other Asia-specific geopolitical issues. After the first leader-level summit in September, the Quad statement put forward the grouping’s views on North Korea, Afghanistan and Myanmar.

In recent weeks, Washington has said that Russia has mobilised over 100,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders, and that it may launch an invasion at any time.

The US has also warned that any such invasion will have severe consequences, and is in the process of working out an elaborate sanctions package with its allies in Europe. Moscow has accused the US of creating hysteria, denied it has any plans of aggression, and asked for a review of the European security architecture, in particular the curtailment of Nato membership, presence, and activities in eastern Europe.

Last week, India, which has close strategic ties with both the US and Russia, abstained from a vote on whether the UNSC should discuss the Ukraine situation. But with a majority of UNSC members voting to take up the agenda, the Indian permanent representative at the UN, TS Tirumurti, spoke of the need for diplomacy. Russia thanked India for its abstention, while the US has categorically denied that its rising tensions with Russia have affected ties with India, and said that its relationship with India stands on its own merits.

Indian experts say they would be surprised if the US pushes the inclusion of Ukraine into the Quad format.

Harsh V Pant of Observer Research Foundation said, “Bilaterally, they will raise it with India. But my sense is that it is unlikely they will bring it within the Quad agenda. The four Quad countries, at the leader-level, have signed on to an agenda which is specific, outlining issues they want to focus on. Ukraine doesn’t quite come into play in that sense.”

Pant added that if the US raised it bilaterally, India was likely to reiterate its existing position and stand on the issue which was articulated at the UNSC. “But if they push it as a part of the formal Quad discourse, India will resist it. There are multiple issues where India has drawn redlines around the Quad agenda, as have all other countries, and it would be a mistake to bring extraneous issues into play in this format.”